Moreirense 0-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Moreirense at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Moreirense vs GIL Vicente encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Moreirense welcome GIL Vicente to Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Primeira Liga (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Moreirense have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

In front of their own supporters, Moreirense have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Moreirense are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

GIL Vicente — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

On current form, Moreirense have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Moreirense have won 1, GIL Vicente 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Dec 2023, ended Moreirense 1–1 GIL Vicente — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Moreirense trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.

GIL Vicente trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 31% versus GIL Vicente 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 38% | GIL Vicente 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.39 xG and GIL Vicente 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.826 / defence 0.974 | GIL Vicente attack 0.818 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.261. Data: built from Moreirense's last 29 games and GIL Vicente's last 63.

Result probabilities: Moreirense 46% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 27%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.19 | Draw 3.65 | GIL Vicente 3.71. Moreirense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Moreirense as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Moreirense 30% (last 10 home games) | GIL Vicente 40% (last 10 away games).

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