Maritimo 1-2 Guimaraes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Maritimo at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Maritimo vs Guimaraes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Maritimo and Guimaraes meet at Estádio dos Barreiros in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 April 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Maritimo have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Maritimo have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estádio dos Barreiros — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Maritimo are significantly better at Estádio dos Barreiros than their overall form suggests.
Guimaraes's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Guimaraes have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Maritimo, 1.10 for Guimaraes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Guimaraes hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Guimaraes winning.
It is worth noting that Guimaraes have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Maritimo half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Guimaraes half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 52% versus Guimaraes 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 48% | Guimaraes 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.96 xG and Guimaraes 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 1.188 / defence 1.176 | Guimaraes attack 0.961 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.039. Guimaraes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Maritimo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Maritimo games / 63 Guimaraes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 56% | Draw 22% | Guimaraes 23%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Guimaraes 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Maritimo (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Maritimo as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Maritimo 50% | Guimaraes 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Guimaraes | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 56% | Draw 22% | Guimaraes 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Maritimo 1.96 / Guimaraes 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 1.188 / def 1.176 | Guimaraes attack 0.961 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Guimaraes xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Guimaraes kick off?
Maritimo vs Guimaraes kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Guimaraes?
Maritimo 1 - 2 Guimaraes.
Where is Maritimo vs Guimaraes being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Guimaraes part of?
Maritimo vs Guimaraes is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Guimaraes?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 56% chance of winning, Guimaraes a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Guimaraes?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Maritimo and Guimaraes will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Guimaraes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Guimaraes?
Record (3 meetings): Maritimo 0W | Draws 0 | Guimaraes 3W.
What form are Maritimo and Guimaraes in?
Maritimo (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Guimaraes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Maritimo's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Guimaraes's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Guimaraes's attack (0.96x) against Maritimo's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
56%
1.80
22%
4.57
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Maritimo xG
Total xG
3.13
1.17
Guimaraes xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
3%
31.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Guimaraes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Guimaraes expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.17 for Guimaraes, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Guimaraes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Maritimo come into this having played 63 games, going 15W 15D 33L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Guimaraes sit at 1.41 PPG from 63 outings (25W 14D 24L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Guimaraes carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Maritimo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Maritimo's home form reads 9W 8D 14L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Guimaraes have taken 1.03 points per game from 31 outings (8W 8D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Maritimo are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Guimaraes are on 1.22 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Current Season
Guimaraes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Guimaraes in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 15W 15D 33L in their last 63 games (0.95 PPG), while Guimaraes have gone 25W 14D 24L in their last 63 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Guimaraes away?
Maritimo's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.13 PPG; Guimaraes away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Maritimo or Guimaraes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Guimaraes in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Guimaraes have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guimaraes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Maritimo
0
Draws
4
Guimaraes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Guimaraes?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 0, Guimaraes have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Guimaraes last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Maritimo 1-2 Guimaraes.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Guimaraes?
Guimaraes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Guimaraes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 48%, Guimaraes 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Maritimo) and 52% (Guimaraes).
On the defensive side: Maritimo have failed to score in 36% of games; Guimaraes in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Guimaraes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Guimaraes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Maritimo's recent matches and 52% of Guimaraes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Guimaraes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Maritimo's recent games and 52% of Guimaraes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Guimaraes tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Guimaraes in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guimaraes defy the odds to beat Maritimo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guimaraes beat Maritimo 1-2 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.96 xG and Guimaraes 1.17 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Maritimo fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Guimaraes outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 1.19 / defence 1.18 against Guimaraes attack 0.96 / defence 1.27, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 56% | Draw 22% | Guimaraes 23%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Guimaraes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 48%, Guimaraes 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Guimaraes's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Maritimo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guimaraes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.