Maritimo 0-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Benfica at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Maritimo vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Maritimo host Benfica at Estádio dos Barreiros in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Maritimo — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Maritimo's home record at Estádio dos Barreiros: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Benfica have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benfica — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Maritimo have won 0, Benfica 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 8.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 1–7 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Maritimo trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Benfica trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 55% versus Benfica 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 45% | Benfica 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.17 xG and Benfica 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.976 / defence 1.079 | Benfica attack 1.396 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.175. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.396 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 Maritimo games / 31 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 24% | Draw 25% | Benfica 50%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Benfica 2.00. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 40% | Benfica 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 24% | Draw 25% | Benfica 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Maritimo 1.17 / Benfica 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.976 / def 1.079 | Benfica attack 1.396 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Benfica (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Benfica xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Benfica kick off?
Maritimo vs Benfica kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Benfica?
Maritimo 0 - 1 Benfica.
Where is Maritimo vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Benfica part of?
Maritimo vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 24% chance of winning, Benfica a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Maritimo and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Benfica?
Record (1 meetings): Maritimo 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 1W.
What form are Maritimo and Benfica in?
Maritimo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Benfica (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Maritimo's attack rating (0.98) and Benfica's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Maritimo's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
24%
4.13
25%
3.95
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.95
1.77
Benfica xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
4%
24.28
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.77 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Maritimo come into this having played 31 games, going 9W 10D 12L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.19 PPG from 31 outings (21W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Maritimo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Maritimo's home form reads 4W 6D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 2.33 points per game from 15 outings (11W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Maritimo are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.42 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica in 65%.
Last 31 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Current Season
Benfica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Benfica in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 9W 10D 12L in their last 31 games (1.19 PPG), while Benfica have gone 21W 5D 5L in their last 31 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.20 PPG; Benfica away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Maritimo or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Benfica in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Maritimo and Benfica runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Benfica won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Maritimo's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Maritimo
0
Draws
4
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Benfica?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 0, Benfica have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Maritimo 0-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 47%, Benfica 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Maritimo) and 67% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Maritimo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Benfica in 40%; Maritimo have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Maritimo's recent matches and 60% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Maritimo's recent games and 67% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Benfica tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Benfica in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Maritimo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Maritimo 0-1 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.17 xG and Benfica 1.77 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Maritimo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Benfica attack 1.40 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 24% | Draw 25% | Benfica 50%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 45%, Benfica 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Maritimo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.