Vitória SC 0-0 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vitória SC at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitória SC vs Pacos Ferreira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques plays host to Vitória SC versus Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 1 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Vitória SC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vitória SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitória SC's home record at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pacos Ferreira have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Vitória SC against 1.30 for Pacos Ferreira. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Vitória SC, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Pacos Ferreira — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Vitória SC winning.
The historical record gives Vitória SC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Vitória SC half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Pacos Ferreira half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitória SC 49% versus Pacos Ferreira 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitória SC 51% | Pacos Ferreira 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitória SC 1.28 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitória SC attack 0.885 / defence 0.938 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.973 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.046. Data: 59 Vitória SC games / 59 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitória SC 44% | Draw 28% | Pacos Ferreira 28%. Fair-value odds: Vitória SC 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Pacos Ferreira 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vitória SC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitória SC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitória SC 40% | Pacos Ferreira 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitória SC vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitória SC 44% | Draw 28% | Pacos Ferreira 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Vitória SC 1.28 / Pacos Ferreira 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Vitória SC attack 0.885 / def 0.938 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.973 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Vitória SC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Vitória SC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Pacos Ferreira xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitória SC vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Vitória SC vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Vitória SC vs Pacos Ferreira?
Vitória SC 0 - 0 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Vitória SC vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Vitória SC vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Vitória SC vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vitória SC vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Vitória SC a 44% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vitória SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Vitória SC and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Vitória SC vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Pacos Ferreira?
Record (3 meetings): Vitória SC 3W | Draws 0 | Pacos Ferreira 0W.
What form are Vitória SC and Pacos Ferreira in?
Vitória SC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vitória SC's attack rating (0.89) and Pacos Ferreira's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.97x) against Vitória SC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitória SC Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.52
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Vitória SC xG
Total xG
2.23
0.95
Pacos Ferreira xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitória SC vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Vitória SC and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Vitória SC and 0.95 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitória SC vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vitória SC's recent record stands at 25W 13D 21L from 59 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Vitória SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacos Ferreira, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 31L across 59 games — 0.92 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vitória SC by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pacos Ferreira heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vitória SC have managed 17W 5D 7L from 29 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Vitória SC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pacos Ferreira's away record stands at 6W 7D 16L across 29 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitória SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vitória SC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.81 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitória SC
Blended
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitória SC and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Vitória SC have gone 25W 13D 21L in their last 59 games (1.49 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 13W 15D 31L in their last 59 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitória SC at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Vitória SC's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitória SC at home: 1.93 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Vitória SC or Pacos Ferreira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Pacos Ferreira in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vitória SC won 4-0 on 15 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitória SC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Vitória SC
1
Draws
0
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitória SC have won 3, Pacos Ferreira have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitória SC and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Vitória SC 0-0 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Vitória SC and Pacos Ferreira?
Vitória SC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitória SC 52%, Pacos Ferreira 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Vitória SC) and 34% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: Vitória SC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Pacos Ferreira in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitória SC home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitória SC play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Vitória SC's recent matches and 38% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitória SC vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Vitória SC's recent games and 34% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitória SC and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Vitória SC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vitória SC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitória SC and Pacos Ferreira finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitória SC 1.28 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.95 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vitória SC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Pacos Ferreira landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitória SC attack 0.89 / defence 0.94 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitória SC 44% | Draw 28% | Pacos Ferreira 28%, with Vitória SC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitória SC 51%, Pacos Ferreira 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitória SC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitória SC arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vitória SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.