Vitória SC 1-3 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitória SC vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Vitória SC welcome Benfica to Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Vitória SC have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 outings — a 1.17 PPG return. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Vitória SC have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Vitória SC have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
Benfica — All Games: 6W 0D 0L from 6 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.67 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica's away record: 3W 0D 0L from 3 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benfica — 1.83 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.17). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Vitória SC trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Benfica trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Vitória SC 17% | Benfica 50%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitória SC 33% | Benfica 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitória SC 0.88 xG and Benfica 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitória SC attack 0.960 / defence 0.919 | Benfica attack 1.325 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.115. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Vitória SC games / 6 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitória SC 21% | Draw 35% | Benfica 44%. Fair-value odds: Vitória SC 4.76 | Draw 2.86 | Benfica 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vitória SC 0% | Benfica 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitória SC vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitória SC 21% | Draw 35% | Benfica 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Vitória SC 0.88 / Benfica 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Vitória SC attack 0.960 / def 0.919 | Benfica attack 1.325 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Benfica (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Vitória SC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Benfica xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitória SC vs Benfica kick off?
Vitória SC vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Vitória SC 1 - 3 Benfica.
Where is Vitória SC vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Vitória SC vs Benfica part of?
Vitória SC vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Vitória SC a 21% chance of winning, Benfica a 44% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Vitória SC and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Vitória SC vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Benfica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitória SC and Benfica in?
Vitória SC (all comps): 1W-4D-1L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Benfica (all comps): 6W-0D-0L in 6 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vitória SC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Vitória SC's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
21%
4.85
35%
2.82
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Vitória SC xG
Total xG
2.24
1.36
Benfica xG
4.85
21%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
5%
18.86
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.4 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Vitória SC and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Vitória SC and 1.36 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitória SC's recent record stands at 1W 4D 1L from 6 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Vitória SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 6W 0D 0L across 6 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitória SC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vitória SC have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 3W 0D 0L across 3 trips, a 3.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitória SC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.67 scored and 0.50 conceded. Benfica's attacking output running into Vitória SC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Vitória SC have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games.
Defensively: Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; Benfica in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitória SC
Early Season
Benfica
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitória SC and Benfica in coming into this match?
Vitória SC have gone 1W 4D 1L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Benfica have gone 6W 0D 0L in their last 6 (3.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitória SC at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitória SC at home: 1.33 PPG; Benfica away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Vitória SC or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Benfica in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Benfica won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitória SC's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Vitória SC
2
Draws
8
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Vitória SC have won 0, Benfica have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitória SC and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Benfica 3-0 Vitória SC.
Who has won more matches between Vitória SC and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitória SC tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Vitória SC 0% BTTS, Benfica 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Vitória SC) and 67% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Vitória SC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Benfica in 67%; Vitória SC have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitória SC home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitória SC play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Vitória SC's recent matches and 33% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitória SC vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Vitória SC's recent games and 67% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitória SC and Benfica tend to score early?
Vitória SC have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Benfica in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vitória SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Vitória SC 1-3 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitória SC 0.88 xG and Benfica 1.36 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitória SC attack 0.96 / defence 0.92 against Benfica attack 1.32 / defence 0.87, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitória SC 21% | Draw 35% | Benfica 44%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitória SC 33%, Benfica 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitória SC's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Benfica's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Vitória SC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.