GIL Vicente 1-2 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIL Vicente vs Moreirense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 29 as GIL Vicente welcome Moreirense to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 April 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, GIL Vicente have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
GIL Vicente's home record at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Moreirense stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Moreirense's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, GIL Vicente have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, GIL Vicente have won 0, Moreirense 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
GIL Vicente trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Moreirense trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 50% versus Moreirense 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 46% | Moreirense 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.54 xG and Moreirense 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.007 / defence 1.052 | Moreirense attack 0.591 / defence 1.491. League average goals — home 1.024 / away 1.282. Moreirense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.491 — this is suppressing GIL Vicente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 GIL Vicente games / 28 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 52% | Draw 31% | Moreirense 17%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Moreirense 5.88. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 40% | Moreirense 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Friday 8 Apr 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 52% | Draw 31% | Moreirense 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG GIL Vicente 1.54 / Moreirense 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.007 / def 1.052 | Moreirense attack 0.591 / def 1.491 | league avg home 1.024 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Moreirense xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Moreirense kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Moreirense kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 8 April 2022 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Moreirense?
GIL Vicente 1 - 2 Moreirense.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Moreirense part of?
GIL Vicente vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 52% chance of winning, Moreirense a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both GIL Vicente and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Moreirense?
Record (1 meetings): GIL Vicente 0W | Draws 1 | Moreirense 0W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Moreirense in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Moreirense (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (1.01) and Moreirense's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Moreirense's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
52%
1.91
31%
3.27
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.33
0.80
Moreirense xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
4%
27.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.9 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.80 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIL Vicente come into this having played 28 games, going 12W 10D 6L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Moreirense sit at 0.71 PPG from 28 outings (4W 8D 16L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
GIL Vicente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Moreirense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIL Vicente's home form reads 5W 5D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Moreirense have taken 0.57 points per game from 14 outings (1W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 0.86 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Current Season
Moreirense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Moreirense in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 12W 10D 6L in their last 28 games (1.64 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 4W 8D 16L in their last 28 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Moreirense away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.43 PPG; Moreirense away: 0.57 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Moreirense in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIL Vicente and Moreirense runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
GIL Vicente's record when hosting Moreirense specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
GIL Vicente
2
Draws
3
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Moreirense?
From 8 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 3, Moreirense have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Moreirense 1-2 GIL Vicente.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 43%, Moreirense 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (GIL Vicente) and 43% (Moreirense).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 29% of games; Moreirense in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Moreirense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 50% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 43% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Moreirense tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Moreirense defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat GIL Vicente 1-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.54 xG and Moreirense 0.80 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Moreirense outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Moreirense attack 0.59 / defence 1.49, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 52% | Draw 31% | Moreirense 17%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Moreirense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 46%, Moreirense 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Moreirense's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Moreirense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Moreirense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.