GIL Vicente 0-0 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIL Vicente vs Estoril encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estoril make the trip to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to face GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 4 March 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this season.
Estoril have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Estoril have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward GIL Vicente. A 1.50 PPG lead over Estoril (2.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: GIL Vicente 0W, Estoril 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 50% versus Estoril 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 50% | Estoril 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.49 xG and Estoril 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.125 / defence 1.089 | Estoril attack 0.607 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.343. Estoril bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing GIL Vicente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 GIL Vicente games / 24 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 49% | Draw 30% | Estoril 20%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Estoril 5.00. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 50% | Estoril 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 49% | Draw 30% | Estoril 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG GIL Vicente 1.49 / Estoril 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.125 / def 1.089 | Estoril attack 0.607 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Estoril xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Estoril kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Estoril kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 4 March 2022 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
GIL Vicente 0 - 0 Estoril.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Estoril part of?
GIL Vicente vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 49% chance of winning, Estoril a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both GIL Vicente and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Estoril?
Record (1 meetings): GIL Vicente 0W | Draws 1 | Estoril 0W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Estoril in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Estoril (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 1.12x the league average against Estoril's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (0.61x) against GIL Vicente's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.28
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.37
0.89
Estoril xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
5%
21.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.89 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 11W 8D 5L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estoril's form line: 7W 9D 8L from 24 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, GIL Vicente are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estoril.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L).
On the road, Estoril have gone 5W 3D 4L from 12 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.17 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Estoril in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 11W 8D 5L in their last 24 games (1.71 PPG), while Estoril have gone 7W 9D 8L in their last 24 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Estoril away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.50 PPG; Estoril away: 1.50 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Estoril in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
GIL Vicente
3
Draws
4
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Estoril?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 3, Estoril have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Estoril 3-1 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Estoril?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 42%, Estoril 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (GIL Vicente) and 33% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Estoril in 33%; Estoril in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 42% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 33% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Estoril tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Estoril in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at GIL Vicente's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 25, as GIL Vicente and Estoril drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.49 xG and Estoril 0.89 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Estoril landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.12 / defence 1.09 against Estoril attack 0.61 / defence 1.24, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 49% | Draw 30% | Estoril 20%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 50%, Estoril 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Estoril's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.