GIL Vicente 0-0 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Chaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Chaves travel to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to take on GIL Vicente. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 April 2023, 20:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIL Vicente stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Chaves — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chaves have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: GIL Vicente 1.50 PPG, Chaves 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for GIL Vicente, 1 for Chaves and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Chaves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
GIL Vicente in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Chaves in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 50% versus Chaves 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 50% | Chaves 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.06 xG and Chaves 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.832 / defence 0.805 | Chaves attack 0.822 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.072. Data: 60 GIL Vicente games / 26 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 43% | Draw 32% | Chaves 24%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Chaves 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Chaves's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 50% | Chaves 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 43% | Draw 32% | Chaves 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG GIL Vicente 1.06 / Chaves 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.832 / def 0.805 | Chaves attack 0.822 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Chaves xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Chaves kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Chaves kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Chaves?
GIL Vicente 0 - 0 Chaves.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Chaves part of?
GIL Vicente vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 43% chance of winning, Chaves a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both GIL Vicente and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Chaves?
Record (1 meetings): GIL Vicente 0W | Draws 0 | Chaves 1W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Chaves in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Chaves (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
GIL Vicente's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Chaves's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
43%
2.30
32%
3.08
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
1.77
0.71
Chaves xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
8%
12.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 12.1 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.71 for Chaves, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 9W 6D 13L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chaves's form line: 9W 8D 11L from 28 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIL Vicente on 1.18 PPG, Chaves on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (5W 5D 4L).
On the road, Chaves have gone 5W 3D 6L from 14 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.04 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Chaves in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 9W 6D 13L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while Chaves have gone 9W 8D 11L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Chaves away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.43 PPG; Chaves away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIL Vicente and Chaves runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
GIL Vicente's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
GIL Vicente
2
Draws
2
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 0, Chaves have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2024, when GIL Vicente 0-0 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Chaves?
Chaves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 36%, Chaves 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for GIL Vicente and 36% for Chaves.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 36% of games; Chaves in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 36% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 36% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Chaves tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chaves in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at GIL Vicente's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente and Chaves finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.06 xG and Chaves 0.71 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.83 / defence 0.81 against Chaves attack 0.82 / defence 0.96, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 43% | Draw 32% | Chaves 24%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 50%, Chaves 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chaves's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.18 PPG, Chaves 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Chaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.