GIL Vicente 0-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIL Vicente vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIL Vicente host Benfica at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 April 2023 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIL Vicente stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIL Vicente have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Benfica — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Benfica have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for GIL Vicente, 2 for Benfica and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 1–3 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
GIL Vicente in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Benfica in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 51% versus Benfica 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 48% | Benfica 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 0.63 xG and Benfica 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.778 / defence 0.760 | Benfica attack 1.257 / defence 0.625. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.052. GIL Vicente's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 0.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Benfica's defence strength of 0.625 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 1.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. GIL Vicente's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 GIL Vicente games / 63 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 22% | Draw 34% | Benfica 44%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | Benfica 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — GIL Vicente's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 40% | Benfica 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 22% | Draw 34% | Benfica 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 30% | xG GIL Vicente 0.63 / Benfica 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.778 / def 0.760 | Benfica attack 1.257 / def 0.625 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Benfica (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.63
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Benfica xG
30%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Benfica kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
GIL Vicente 0 - 2 Benfica.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Benfica part of?
GIL Vicente vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 22% chance of winning, Benfica a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both GIL Vicente and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Benfica?
Record (3 meetings): GIL Vicente 1W | Draws 0 | Benfica 2W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Benfica in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Benfica (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 0.78x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 0.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (18.0%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
22%
4.45
34%
2.95
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.5%
Draw
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.63
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
1.63
1.00
Benfica xG
4.45
22%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.37
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
53%
1.88
Win to Nil
8%
12.15
23%
4.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.5 | 19.6 | 9.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.63 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.00 for Benfica, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 21W 19D 23L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Benfica's form line: 47W 7D 9L from 63 games, 2.35 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIL Vicente.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.35 PPG from 31 outings (10W 12D 9L).
On the road, Benfica have gone 24W 3D 4L from 31 away games — 2.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.33 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Current Season
Benfica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Benfica in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 21W 19D 23L in their last 63 games (1.30 PPG), while Benfica have gone 47W 7D 9L in their last 63 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.35 PPG; Benfica away: 2.42 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Benfica in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIL Vicente and Benfica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Benfica won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIL Vicente's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
GIL Vicente
0
Draws
9
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 1, Benfica have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 42%, Benfica 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (GIL Vicente) and 52% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Benfica in 61%; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 32% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 52% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Benfica tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Benfica in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over GIL Vicente.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat GIL Vicente 0-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 0.63 xG and Benfica 1.00 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.78 / defence 0.76 against Benfica attack 1.26 / defence 0.62, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 22% | Draw 34% | Benfica 44%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 48%, Benfica 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.