Farense 0-3 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Farense face Casa Pia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Casa Pia travel to Estádio de São Lúis to take on Farense in Primeira Liga (matchday 1). The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Looking at their last 10 matches, Casa Pia stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Casa Pia away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.26 xG and Casa Pia 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Casa Pia attack 0.865 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.101. Data: built from Farense's last 0 games and Casa Pia's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Farense 40% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 32%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.49 | Draw 3.59 | Casa Pia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Farense as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Farense 0 games, Casa Pia 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 1 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 40% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Farense 1.26 / Casa Pia 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Casa Pia attack 0.865 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Farense (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Casa Pia xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Farense vs Casa Pia FAQs
What time does Farense vs Casa Pia kick off?
Farense vs Casa Pia kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Casa Pia?
Farense 0 - 3 Casa Pia.
Where is Farense vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Casa Pia part of?
Farense vs Casa Pia is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 1) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 40% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Farense and Casa Pia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Farense vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Farense's attack at 0.85x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Casa Pia's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Farense's last 0 games and Casa Pia's last 34, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.59
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Farense xG
Total xG
2.36
1.10
Casa Pia xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Farense vs Casa Pia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Farense and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Farense and 1.10 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Pre-Season
Casa Pia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Farense (Home) vs Casa Pia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Farense
Pre-Season
Casa Pia
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 7 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Aug 2023, when Casa Pia won Farense 0-3 Casa Pia.
Farense's record when hosting Casa Pia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Farense
2
Draws
1
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Farense vs Casa Pia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Casa Pia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Farense have won 1, Casa Pia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Casa Pia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 April 2025: Farense 0-0 Casa Pia.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Casa Pia run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Farense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Farense 0-3 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.26 xG and Casa Pia 1.10 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Farense fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Casa Pia outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Casa Pia attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 40% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 32%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Casa Pia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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