Farense 0-1 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boavista at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Boavista fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Farense welcome Boavista to Estádio de São Lúis. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 April 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Farense have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio de São Lúis, Farense have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Boavista — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Boavista away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Farense) versus 0.60 (Boavista). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Farense, 0 for Boavista and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Farense trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Boavista trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 51% versus Boavista 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 48% | Boavista 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 0.80 xG and Boavista 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.578 / defence 1.015 | Boavista attack 0.808 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.191. Farense's attack strength of 0.578 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Farense games / 63 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Farense 29% | Draw 33% | Boavista 38%. Fair-value odds: Farense 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Boavista 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Farense's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Boavista as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Boavista offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Farense 30% | Boavista 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 29% | Draw 33% | Boavista 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Farense 0.80 / Boavista 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.578 / def 1.015 | Boavista attack 0.808 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Boavista (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Farense xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Boavista xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs Boavista kick off?
Farense vs Boavista kicked off at 15:30 on Friday 18 April 2025 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Boavista?
Farense 0 - 1 Boavista.
Where is Farense vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Boavista part of?
Farense vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 29% chance of winning, Boavista a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Farense and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Boavista?
Record (3 meetings): Farense 2W | Draws 1 | Boavista 0W.
What form are Farense and Boavista in?
Farense (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Boavista (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Farense's attack rating (0.58) and Boavista's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Boavista's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
29%
3.50
33%
3.03
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Farense xG
Total xG
1.77
0.98
Boavista xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 16.6 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Farense and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Farense and 0.98 for Boavista, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Farense have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 14W 16D 33L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Boavista's form line: 11W 17D 35L from 63 games, 0.79 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Farense on 0.92 PPG, Boavista on 0.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Farense have posted 0.97 PPG from 31 outings (8W 6D 17L).
On the road, Boavista have gone 6W 6D 19L from 31 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Farense are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 0.92 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Current Season
Boavista
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and Boavista in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 14W 16D 33L in their last 63 games (0.92 PPG), while Boavista have gone 11W 17D 35L in their last 63 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or Boavista away?
Farense's home record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 0.97 PPG; Boavista away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Farense's record when hosting Boavista specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Farense
1
Draws
1
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Boavista?
From 4 meetings on record, Farense have won 2, Boavista have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Farense 0-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Farense and Boavista?
Farense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 42%, Boavista 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Farense) and 55% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Farense have failed to score in 39% of games; Boavista in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play Boavista?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Farense's recent matches and 52% of Boavista's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Farense vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Farense's recent games and 55% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Farense and Boavista tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Boavista in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Boavista edge out Farense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista beat Farense 0-1 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 0.80 xG and Boavista 0.98 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.58 / defence 1.01 against Boavista attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 29% | Draw 33% | Boavista 38%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 48%, Boavista 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Boavista's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 0.92 PPG, Boavista 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boavista win broke the near-deadlock. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Boavista (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.