Famalicao 3-2 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vizela (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Famalicao, 0.80 for Vizela — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Famalicao, 0 for Vizela and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Vizela half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 50% versus Vizela 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 48% | Vizela 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.57 xG and Vizela 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.824 / defence 1.045 | Vizela attack 0.798 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.207. Vizela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Famalicao's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Famalicao games / 61 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 50% | Draw 26% | Vizela 24%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Vizela 4.17. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 70% | Vizela 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 50% | Draw 26% | Vizela 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Famalicao 1.57 / Vizela 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.824 / def 1.045 | Vizela attack 0.798 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Vizela xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Vizela kick off?
Famalicao vs Vizela kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Vizela?
Famalicao 3 - 2 Vizela.
Where is Famalicao vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Vizela part of?
Famalicao vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 50% chance of winning, Vizela a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Famalicao and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Vizela?
Record (5 meetings): Famalicao 1W | Draws 4 | Vizela 0W.
What form are Famalicao and Vizela in?
Famalicao (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Vizela (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Famalicao's attack at 0.82x the league average against Vizela's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.80x) against Famalicao's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.91
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.57
1.01
Vizela xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
5%
19.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.01 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Famalicao have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 20W 15D 25L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vizela's form line: 14W 16D 30L from 60 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Famalicao against 0.97 for Vizela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.55 PPG from 29 outings (13W 6D 10L).
On the road, Vizela have gone 7W 8D 14L from 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 0.98 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Vizela in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 20W 15D 25L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Vizela have gone 14W 16D 30L in their last 60 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Vizela away?
Famalicao's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.55 PPG; Vizela away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Famalicao
4
Draws
0
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Vizela?
From 6 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Vizela have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Famalicao 3-2 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Vizela?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 48%, Vizela 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Famalicao) and 41% (Vizela).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Vizela in 31%; Famalicao have failed to score in 28% of games; Vizela in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Vizela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Famalicao's recent matches and 45% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Famalicao's recent games and 41% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Vizela tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Vizela in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Vizela 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Vizela 3-2 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.57 xG and Vizela 1.01 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Famalicao beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vizela outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Vizela attack 0.80 / defence 1.27, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 50% | Draw 26% | Vizela 24%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 48%, Vizela 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Vizela's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.25 PPG, Vizela 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vizela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.