Famalicao 1-2 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Maritimo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal de Famalicao plays host to Famalicao versus Maritimo in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 16 August 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Famalicao have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
Maritimo (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Primeira Liga outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Maritimo are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Famalicao 2W, Maritimo 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 3–2 with Famalicao winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.68 xG and Maritimo 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 1.037 / defence 0.910 | Maritimo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.173. Data: 35 Famalicao games / 1 Maritimo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Famalicao 56% | Draw 24% | Maritimo 20%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Maritimo 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Famalicao (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Famalicao dominate the H2H record, yet Maritimo are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Maritimo (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 56% | Draw 24% | Maritimo 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Famalicao 1.68 / Maritimo 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 1.037 / def 0.910 | Maritimo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Maritimo xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Maritimo kick off?
Famalicao vs Maritimo kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Famalicao 1 - 2 Maritimo.
Where is Famalicao vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What competition is Famalicao vs Maritimo part of?
Famalicao vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 56% chance of winning, Maritimo a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Famalicao and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Maritimo?
Record (4 meetings): Famalicao 2W | Draws 2 | Maritimo 0W.
What form are Famalicao and Maritimo in?
Famalicao (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Maritimo (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (1.04) and Maritimo's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.85x) against Famalicao's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.14
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.59
0.91
Maritimo xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
4%
26.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.91 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Famalicao's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Maritimo by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Famalicao heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Famalicao have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Maritimo in 0%.
Defensively: Maritimo in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Early Season
Maritimo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Famalicao or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Maritimo in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Famalicao
2
Draws
1
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Maritimo?
From 5 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Maritimo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Famalicao 1-2 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Maritimo?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Maritimo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Famalicao's recent matches and 0% of Maritimo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Famalicao's recent games and 0% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Maritimo tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Maritimo defy the odds to beat Famalicao 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo beat Famalicao 1-2 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.68 xG and Maritimo 0.91 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Maritimo outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.04 / defence 0.91 against Maritimo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 56% | Draw 24% | Maritimo 20%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Maritimo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 0%, Maritimo 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Maritimo arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Famalicao shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Maritimo scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.