Estrela 2-3 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (39%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Estrela face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estrela host Benfica at Estádio José Gomes in Primeira Liga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 2 February 2025 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Estrela stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Estrela's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Benfica — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Benfica have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Estrela. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Estrela 0–1 Benfica — a Benfica win.
Benfica have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Estrela in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Benfica in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 47% versus Benfica 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 45% | Benfica 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Estrela surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Benfica have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.25 xG and Benfica 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.950 / defence 1.137 | Benfica attack 1.048 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.155. Data: built from Estrela's last 53 games and Benfica's last 53.
Result probabilities: Estrela 33% | Draw 27% | Benfica 39%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 3.00 | Draw 3.68 | Benfica 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Estrela 50% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 20 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Sunday 2 February 2025 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 33% | Draw 27% | Benfica 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Estrela 1.25 / Benfica 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.950 / def 1.137 | Benfica attack 1.048 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Benfica (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Benfica xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estrela vs Benfica FAQs
What time does Estrela vs Benfica kick off?
Estrela vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Benfica?
Estrela 2 - 3 Benfica.
Where is Estrela vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Benfica part of?
Estrela vs Benfica is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 20) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 33% chance of winning, Benfica a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Estrela and Benfica will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estrela vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estrela's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Benfica's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Estrela's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estrela's last 53 games and Benfica's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
33%
3.00
27%
3.68
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.62
1.38
Benfica xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estrela vs Benfica Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Estrela and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Estrela and 1.38 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estrela's recent record stands at 11W 17D 25L from 53 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 38W 7D 8L across 53 games — 2.28 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.34 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estrela heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estrela have managed 10W 5D 11L from their last 26 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Estrela are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Benfica's away record stands at 14W 5D 7L across their last 26 away games, a 1.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estrela are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.26 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Blended
Benfica
Blended
Estrela (Home) vs Benfica (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estrela
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Estrela vs Benfica Form FAQs
What form are Estrela and Benfica in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 11W 17D 25L in their last 53 games (0.94 PPG), while Benfica have gone 38W 7D 8L in their last 53 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.35 PPG; Benfica away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Estrela or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estrela have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Benfica in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica have won the most recent 7 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Jan 2026, when Benfica won Benfica 4-0 Estrela.
Estrela's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Estrela
0
Draws
7
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Estrela vs Benfica H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Benfica?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Estrela have won 0, Benfica have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Benfica last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Estrela 2-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 58%, Benfica 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Estrela) and 50% (Benfica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estrela vs Benfica Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estrela and Benfica matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Estrela's recent matches and 50% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estrela and Benfica matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Estrela's matches and 50% of Benfica's.
Do Estrela and Benfica matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Estrela's recent matches and 73% of Benfica's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Estrela 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estrela 2-3 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.25 xG and Benfica 1.38 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Benfica attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 33% | Draw 27% | Benfica 39%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 45%, Benfica 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Benfica's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estrela (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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