Estoril 1-0 Tondela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Tondela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tondela make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 February 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Estoril's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tondela have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tondela have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Estoril against 0.80 for Tondela. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Estoril register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Tondela in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Estoril 1W, Tondela 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Estoril winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Estoril — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Tondela — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estoril 57% and Tondela 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 43% | Tondela 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.49 xG and Tondela 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.924 / defence 1.201 | Tondela attack 0.837 / defence 1.485. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.412. Tondela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.485 — this is suppressing Estoril's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Estoril games / 21 Tondela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 37% | Draw 29% | Tondela 34%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Tondela 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 70% | Tondela 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Tondela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 37% | Draw 29% | Tondela 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Estoril 1.49 / Tondela 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.924 / def 1.201 | Tondela attack 0.837 / def 1.485 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Estoril (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Tondela xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Tondela kick off?
Estoril vs Tondela kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Tondela?
Estoril 1 - 0 Tondela.
Where is Estoril vs Tondela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Tondela part of?
Estoril vs Tondela is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Tondela?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 37% chance of winning, Tondela a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Tondela?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Estoril and Tondela will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Tondela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Tondela?
Record (1 meetings): Estoril 1W | Draws 0 | Tondela 0W.
What form are Estoril and Tondela in?
Estoril (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Tondela (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Estoril's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Tondela's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Tondela's attack (0.84x) against Estoril's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
37%
2.70
29%
3.47
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.91
1.42
Tondela xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
9%
11.14
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Tondela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Estoril and Tondela expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Estoril and 1.42 for Tondela, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Tondela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 9D 6L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tondela sit at 0.95 PPG from 21 outings (6W 2D 13L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Estoril against 0.95 for Tondela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Estoril's home form reads 1W 6D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Tondela have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Tondela are on 1.38 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tondela in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Tondela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Tondela in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 6W 9D 6L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Tondela have gone 6W 2D 13L in their last 21 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Tondela away?
Estoril's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 0.90 PPG; Tondela away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Tondela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Estoril
2
Draws
0
Tondela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Tondela?
From 4 meetings on record, Estoril have won 2, Tondela have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Tondela last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Estoril 2-2 Tondela.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Tondela?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Estoril, 70% for Tondela — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Estoril and 60% for Tondela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Tondela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Tondela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Estoril's games and 70% of Tondela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Tondela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Estoril's matches and 60% of Tondela's.
Do Estoril and Tondela tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Tondela in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estoril edge out Tondela 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Tondela 1-0 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.49 xG and Tondela 1.42 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tondela landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.92 / defence 1.20 against Tondela attack 0.84 / defence 1.49, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 37% | Draw 29% | Tondela 34%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 43%, Tondela 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Tondela's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.29 PPG, Tondela 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Tondela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.