Estoril 0-2 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Estoril at 40%, yet in-form Sporting CP provide a compelling counter-argument — this Estoril vs Sporting CP fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estoril and Sporting CP meet at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 September 2022 at 21:15 UTC.
Form
Estoril (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estoril's home record at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
Sporting CP have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sporting CP have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sporting CP away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sporting CP arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Estoril 0W, Sporting CP 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Sporting CP winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sporting CP half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 47% versus Sporting CP 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 45% | Sporting CP 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.60 xG and Sporting CP 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.086 / defence 1.001 | Sporting CP attack 1.268 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.197. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Estoril games / 38 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 40% | Draw 24% | Sporting CP 36%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Sporting CP 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sporting CP (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 40% | Sporting CP 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 40% | Draw 24% | Sporting CP 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Estoril 1.60 / Sporting CP 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.086 / def 1.001 | Sporting CP attack 1.268 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Estoril (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Sporting CP xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Sporting CP kick off?
Estoril vs Sporting CP kicked off at 21:15 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Sporting CP?
Estoril 0 - 2 Sporting CP.
Where is Estoril vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Sporting CP part of?
Estoril vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 40% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Estoril and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Sporting CP?
Record (2 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 0 | Sporting CP 2W.
What form are Estoril and Sporting CP in?
Estoril (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Sporting CP (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estoril's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Sporting CP's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (1.27x) against Estoril's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
40%
2.51
24%
4.21
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Estoril xG
Total xG
3.12
1.52
Sporting CP xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.51
7%
13.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Estoril and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Estoril and 1.52 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estoril come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 13D 14L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sporting CP sit at 2.34 PPG from 38 outings (28W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sporting CP, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of Estoril — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Estoril's home form reads 5W 9D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Sporting CP have taken 2.26 points per game from 19 outings (13W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estoril are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.08 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Early Season
Sporting CP
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 28W 5D 5L in their last 38 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.26 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.26 PPG.
Have Estoril or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sporting CP have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 5-1 on 5 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Estoril
0
Draws
10
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Sporting CP?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 0, Sporting CP have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Sporting CP 3-0 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 32% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 58%, Sporting CP 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Estoril and 68% for Sporting CP. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sporting CP in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Sporting CP?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Estoril's games and 63% of Sporting CP's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Estoril's matches and 68% of Sporting CP's.
Do Estoril and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sporting CP cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Estoril 0-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.60 xG and Sporting CP 1.52 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Estoril fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Sporting CP attack 1.27 / defence 1.13, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 40% | Draw 24% | Sporting CP 36%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sporting CP win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 45%, Sporting CP 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sporting CP's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Sporting CP (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.