Estoril 0-3 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sporting CP (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estoril face Sporting CP.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estoril and Sporting CP meet at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 September 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Form
Estoril (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estoril's home record at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sporting CP have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sporting CP have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sporting CP away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Sporting CP arrive in superior form — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Sporting CP hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Sporting CP winning.
It is worth noting that Sporting CP have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Sporting CP half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 55% versus Sporting CP 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Estoril 58% | Sporting CP 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 0.79 xG and Sporting CP 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.826 / defence 0.991 | Sporting CP attack 1.824 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.190. Sporting CP's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.824 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Estoril games / 40 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 12% | Draw 19% | Sporting CP 69%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 8.33 | Draw 5.26 | Sporting CP 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sporting CP at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 30% | Sporting CP 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 12% | Draw 19% | Sporting CP 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 48% | xG Estoril 0.79 / Sporting CP 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.826 / def 0.991 | Sporting CP attack 1.824 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Sporting CP xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Sporting CP kick off?
Estoril vs Sporting CP kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Sporting CP?
Estoril 0 - 3 Sporting CP.
Where is Estoril vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Sporting CP part of?
Estoril vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 12% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 69% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Estoril and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Sporting CP?
Record (6 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 0 | Sporting CP 6W.
What form are Estoril and Sporting CP in?
Estoril (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Sporting CP (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estoril's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Sporting CP's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (1.82x) against Estoril's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 2.15.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
12%
8.08
19%
5.31
69%
1.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.94
2.15
Sporting CP xG
8.08
12%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
1.45
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
12%
8.59
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
1%
69.47
31%
3.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Estoril and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Estoril and 2.15 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Sporting CP?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estoril come into this having played 40 games, going 10W 9D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sporting CP sit at 2.70 PPG from 40 outings (35W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sporting CP, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.72 PPG clear of Estoril — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Estoril's home form reads 9W 2D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Estoril are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sporting CP have taken 2.40 points per game from 20 outings (15W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estoril are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.95 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Early Season
Sporting CP
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 10W 9D 21L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 35W 3D 2L in their last 40 (2.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.45 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Estoril or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sporting CP have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 5-1 on 5 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Estoril
0
Draws
10
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Sporting CP?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 0, Sporting CP have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Sporting CP 3-0 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estoril see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 35%, Sporting CP 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Estoril and 75% for Sporting CP. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sporting CP in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Sporting CP?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Estoril's recent matches and 55% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Estoril's matches and 75% of Sporting CP's.
Do Estoril and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Estoril 0-3 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 0.79 xG and Sporting CP 2.15 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sporting CP outscored their 2.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.83 / defence 0.99 against Sporting CP attack 1.82 / defence 0.76, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 12% | Draw 19% | Sporting CP 69%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 58%, Sporting CP 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sporting CP's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.