Estoril 0-0 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pacos Ferreira make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Monday 31 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Estoril (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this season: 1W 5D 3L from 9 home games — 0.89 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pacos Ferreira's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's away record: 2W 3D 4L from 9 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Estoril, 0.90 for Pacos Ferreira — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Estoril 1W, Pacos Ferreira 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with Estoril winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Pacos Ferreira half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 63% versus Pacos Ferreira 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Estoril 47% | Pacos Ferreira 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.15 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.007 / defence 1.254 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.509 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.437. Data: 19 Estoril games / 19 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 40% | Draw 32% | Pacos Ferreira 28%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Pacos Ferreira 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estoril 78% | Pacos Ferreira 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Monday 31 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 40% | Draw 32% | Pacos Ferreira 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Estoril 1.15 / Pacos Ferreira 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.007 / def 1.254 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.509 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Estoril (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Pacos Ferreira xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 31 January 2022 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira?
Estoril 0 - 0 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 40% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Estoril and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Pacos Ferreira?
Record (1 meetings): Estoril 1W | Draws 0 | Pacos Ferreira 0W.
What form are Estoril and Pacos Ferreira in?
Estoril (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estoril's attack rating (1.01) and Pacos Ferreira's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.51x) against Estoril's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
40%
2.49
32%
3.14
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.07
0.92
Pacos Ferreira xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Estoril and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Estoril and 0.92 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 7D 6L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacos Ferreira sit at 1.00 PPG from 19 outings (4W 7D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Estoril against 1.00 for Pacos Ferreira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Estoril's home form reads 1W 5D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.32 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Pacos Ferreira have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.74 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estoril have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 4W 7D 8L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Pacos Ferreira's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 0.89 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Estoril or Pacos Ferreira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Pacos Ferreira in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estoril won 0-3 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Estoril
1
Draws
1
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Estoril have won 2, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Estoril 1-3 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Pacos Ferreira?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pacos Ferreira see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 78%, Pacos Ferreira 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Estoril) and 22% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira in 33%; Pacos Ferreira in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Pacos Ferreira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Estoril's games and 33% of Pacos Ferreira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Estoril's recent games and 22% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Estoril's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 20, as Estoril and Pacos Ferreira drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.15 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.92 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Estoril fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Pacos Ferreira landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.01 / defence 1.25 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.51 / defence 1.05, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 40% | Draw 32% | Pacos Ferreira 28%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 47%, Pacos Ferreira 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.32 PPG, Pacos Ferreira 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.