Estoril 2-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Estoril take on Maritimo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Maritimo make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 27 August 2021 at 21:15 UTC.
Form
Estoril (all games): 2W 1D 0L across 3 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 0.33 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Maritimo's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Estoril's 2.33 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Maritimo's 1.33 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Estoril goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Maritimo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 33% versus Maritimo 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Estoril 33% | Maritimo 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 0.96 xG and Maritimo 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.787 / defence 1.011 | Maritimo attack 0.973 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.108. Estoril's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Estoril games / 3 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 28% | Draw 37% | Maritimo 35%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 3.57 | Draw 2.70 | Maritimo 2.86. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Estoril 33% | Maritimo 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 28% | Draw 37% | Maritimo 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Estoril 0.96 / Maritimo 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.787 / def 1.011 | Maritimo attack 0.973 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Maritimo xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Maritimo kick off?
Estoril vs Maritimo kicked off at 21:15 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Maritimo?
Estoril 2 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Estoril vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Maritimo part of?
Estoril vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 28% chance of winning, Maritimo a 35% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Estoril and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Maritimo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estoril and Maritimo in?
Estoril (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-D-W. Maritimo (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Estoril's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Maritimo's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.97x) against Estoril's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.56
37%
2.71
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.05
1.09
Maritimo xG
3.56
28%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 14.1 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Estoril and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Estoril and 1.09 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril's recent record stands at 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 1L across 3 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Estoril by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Maritimo heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo in 67%.
Defensively: Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Early Season
Maritimo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Estoril or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Maritimo in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Estoril
1
Draws
1
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Estoril have won 2, Maritimo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when Estoril 3-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Maritimo?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 33%, Maritimo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Estoril and 33% for Maritimo.
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Estoril have failed to score in 33% of games; Maritimo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Maritimo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Estoril's recent matches and 67% of Maritimo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Estoril's recent games and 33% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Maritimo tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Estoril defy the odds to beat Maritimo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Maritimo 2-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 0.96 xG and Maritimo 1.09 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.79 / defence 1.01 against Maritimo attack 0.97 / defence 1.13, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 28% | Draw 37% | Maritimo 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Estoril win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 33%, Maritimo 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Maritimo's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.