Estoril 1-2 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arouca make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Thursday 27 January 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
Estoril's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril's home record at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota: 1W 5D 2L from 8 Primeira Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Arouca (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's away record: 0W 4D 5L from 9 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Estoril have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Arouca in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Estoril, 0 for Arouca and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Estoril winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estoril 61% and Arouca 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 44% | Arouca 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.51 xG and Arouca 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.057 / defence 1.188 | Arouca attack 0.655 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.419. Arouca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Estoril's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Estoril games / 18 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 46% | Draw 28% | Arouca 27%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Arouca 3.70. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 75% | Arouca 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Jan 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 46% | Draw 28% | Arouca 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Estoril 1.51 / Arouca 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.057 / def 1.188 | Arouca attack 0.655 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Estoril (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Arouca xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Arouca kick off?
Estoril vs Arouca kicked off at 20:15 on Thursday 27 January 2022 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Arouca?
Estoril 1 - 2 Arouca.
Where is Estoril vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Arouca part of?
Estoril vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 46% chance of winning, Arouca a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Estoril and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Arouca?
Record (1 meetings): Estoril 1W | Draws 0 | Arouca 0W.
What form are Estoril and Arouca in?
Estoril (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Arouca (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estoril's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.66x) against Estoril's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.64
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.61
1.10
Arouca xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
6%
16.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Estoril and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Estoril and 1.10 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estoril come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 7D 5L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arouca sit at 0.78 PPG from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estoril carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Arouca — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Estoril's home form reads 1W 5D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Arouca have taken 0.50 points per game from 8 outings (0W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estoril are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 0.94 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estoril have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Arouca in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Arouca in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 6W 7D 5L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Arouca have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Arouca away?
Estoril's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.00 PPG; Arouca away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estoril won 4-1 on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Estoril
1
Draws
5
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 4, Arouca have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Arouca 3-2 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Estoril, 75% for Arouca — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Estoril and 62% for Arouca. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Arouca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Estoril's games and 75% of Arouca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Estoril's matches and 62% of Arouca's.
Do Estoril and Arouca tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Arouca in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arouca defy the odds to beat Estoril 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Estoril 1-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.51 xG and Arouca 1.10 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Arouca outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.06 / defence 1.19 against Arouca attack 0.66 / defence 1.32, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 46% | Draw 28% | Arouca 27%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 44%, Arouca 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Arouca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.