Chaves 1-2 Vitória SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Vitória SC (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Chaves face Vitória SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Chaves welcome Vitória SC to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 17 March 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chaves stand at 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Chaves's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vitória SC — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Vitória SC have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Vitória SC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Chaves's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Chaves's games and 60% of Vitória SC's (from Chaves's last 10 home games and Vitória SC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Vitória SC have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Chaves. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Chaves 0–5 Vitória SC — a Vitória SC win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Vitória SC have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Chaves trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Vitória SC trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 52% versus Vitória SC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 46% | Vitória SC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.04 xG and Vitória SC 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.839 / defence 1.388 | Vitória SC attack 0.971 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.216. Chaves's defence rating of 1.388 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vitória SC's projected output up. Data: built from Chaves's last 59 games and Vitória SC's last 59.
Result probabilities: Chaves 23% | Draw 26% | Vitória SC 50%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 4.31 | Draw 3.79 | Vitória SC 1.98. Vitória SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitória SC at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitória SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chaves 70% (last 10 home games) | Vitória SC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Vitória SC | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 26 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 23% | Draw 26% | Vitória SC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Chaves 1.04 / Vitória SC 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.839 / def 1.388 | Vitória SC attack 0.971 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Vitória SC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Vitória SC xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chaves vs Vitória SC FAQs
What time does Chaves vs Vitória SC kick off?
Chaves vs Vitória SC kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Vitória SC?
Chaves 1 - 2 Vitória SC.
Where is Chaves vs Vitória SC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Vitória SC part of?
Chaves vs Vitória SC is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 26) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Vitória SC?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 23% chance of winning, Vitória SC a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vitória SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Vitória SC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chaves and Vitória SC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chaves vs Vitória SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chaves's attack rating (0.84) and Vitória SC's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitória SC's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chaves's last 59 games and Vitória SC's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitória SC Win
23%
4.31
26%
3.79
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.68
1.64
Vitória SC xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
5%
22.20
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chaves vs Vitória SC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Vitória SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Chaves and Vitória SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Chaves and 1.64 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Vitória SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chaves's recent record stands at 16W 17D 26L from 59 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Vitória SC, meanwhile, have gone 30W 10D 19L across 59 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vitória SC by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chaves heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chaves have managed 9W 8D 12L from their last 29 home games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitória SC's away record stands at 11W 6D 12L across their last 29 away games, a 1.34 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Chaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Vitória SC are on 1.24 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Vitória SC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Vitória SC
Blended
Chaves (Home) vs Vitória SC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chaves
Blended
Vitória SC
Blended
❓ Chaves vs Vitória SC Form FAQs
What form are Chaves and Vitória SC in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 16W 17D 26L in their last 59 games (1.10 PPG), while Vitória SC have gone 30W 10D 19L in their last 59 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Vitória SC away?
Vitória SC's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.21 PPG; Vitória SC away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Chaves or Vitória SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Vitória SC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 17 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Vitória SC have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Oct 2023, when Vitória SC won Vitória SC 5-0 Chaves.
Chaves's record when hosting Vitória SC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Chaves
0
Draws
4
Vitória SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Chaves vs Vitória SC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Vitória SC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Chaves have won 0, Vitória SC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Vitória SC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 March 2024: Chaves 1-2 Vitória SC.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Vitória SC?
Vitória SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 66%, Vitória SC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Chaves) and 52% (Vitória SC).
On the defensive side: Vitória SC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Vitória SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chaves vs Vitória SC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chaves and Vitória SC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Chaves's games and 48% of Vitória SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chaves and Vitória SC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Chaves's recent games and 52% of Vitória SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Vitória SC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Chaves's recent matches and 69% of Vitória SC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vitória SC edge out Chaves 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitória SC beat Chaves 1-2 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.04 xG and Vitória SC 1.64 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.84 / defence 1.39 against Vitória SC attack 0.97 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 23% | Draw 26% | Vitória SC 50%, with Vitória SC to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 46%, Vitória SC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Vitória SC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitória SC arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Vitória SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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