Casa Pia 1-3 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SC Braga at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees SC Braga travel to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to take on Casa Pia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 December 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Casa Pia stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
SC Braga — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Braga's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Braga — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Casa Pia, 1 for SC Braga and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with SC Braga winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Casa Pia in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 26% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
SC Braga in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 42% versus SC Braga 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 38% | SC Braga 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.10 xG and SC Braga 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.673 / defence 0.862 | SC Braga attack 1.458 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.198. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SC Braga have an above-average attack strength of 1.458 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Casa Pia games / 48 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 28% | Draw 26% | SC Braga 47%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | SC Braga 2.13. SC Braga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Braga at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 50% | SC Braga 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 28% | Draw 26% | SC Braga 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Casa Pia 1.10 / SC Braga 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.673 / def 0.862 | SC Braga attack 1.458 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.51
SC Braga xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs SC Braga kick off?
Casa Pia vs SC Braga kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 December 2023 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs SC Braga?
Casa Pia 1 - 3 SC Braga.
Where is Casa Pia vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs SC Braga part of?
Casa Pia vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 28% chance of winning, SC Braga a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Casa Pia and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and SC Braga?
Record (2 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 0 | SC Braga 1W.
What form are Casa Pia and SC Braga in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. SC Braga (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.67x the league average against SC Braga's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
28%
3.61
26%
3.89
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.60
1.51
SC Braga xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
6%
16.29
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.51 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Casa Pia come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 12D 21L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Braga sit at 2.23 PPG from 48 outings (34W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Casa Pia's home form reads 7W 7D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Braga have taken 2.17 points per game from 23 outings (16W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Casa Pia are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 2.31 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 15W 12D 21L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 34W 5D 9L in their last 48 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.22 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SC Braga in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Casa Pia and SC Braga runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SC Braga have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when SC Braga won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Casa Pia's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Casa Pia
0
Draws
5
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and SC Braga?
From 8 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 3, SC Braga have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Casa Pia 0-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Casa Pia tend to start slowly — only 26% of their games have a goal by half-time.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 39%, SC Braga 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Casa Pia) and 74% (SC Braga).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; SC Braga in 30%; Casa Pia have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 61% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Casa Pia's recent games and 74% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and SC Braga tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 26% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Braga cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Casa Pia 1-3 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.10 xG and SC Braga 1.51 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SC Braga outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.67 / defence 0.86 against SC Braga attack 1.46 / defence 1.07, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 28% | Draw 26% | SC Braga 47%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 38%, SC Braga 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Braga's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Casa Pia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.