Casa Pia vs Maritimo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Maritimo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Maritimo make the trip to to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Casa Pia's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Casa Pia have posted 1W 3D 6L at — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Maritimo (all games): 2W 2D 4L across 8 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.00 for Maritimo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Casa Pia lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Maritimo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Casa Pia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 75% of games.
Maritimo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 25% versus Maritimo 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 38% | Maritimo 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.14 xG and Maritimo 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.697 / defence 1.357 | Maritimo attack 0.879 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.364. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Casa Pia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Casa Pia games / 8 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 27% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 49%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Maritimo 2.04. Maritimo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Maritimo are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Maritimo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 30% | Maritimo 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 27% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Casa Pia 1.14 / Maritimo 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.697 / def 1.357 | Maritimo attack 0.879 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Maritimo xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Maritimo kick off?
Casa Pia vs Maritimo is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 January 2027.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Maritimo part of?
Casa Pia vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 27% chance of winning, Maritimo a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Casa Pia and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Maritimo?
Record (3 meetings): Casa Pia 2W | Draws 0 | Maritimo 1W.
What form are Casa Pia and Maritimo in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Maritimo (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.70x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.88x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
27%
3.75
25%
4.06
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.76
1.63
Maritimo xG
3.75
27%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
5%
19.05
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.63 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Casa Pia have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 1D 6L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo's form line: 2W 2D 4L from 8 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Maritimo are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Casa Pia.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Casa Pia have posted 0.00 PPG from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L). That actually lags their 0.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Maritimo have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Maritimo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 0.38 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.12 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Casa Pia have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Maritimo in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Maritimo away?
Maritimo's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 0.00 PPG; Maritimo away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Casa Pia
0
Draws
1
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Maritimo?
From 3 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 2, Maritimo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Maritimo 1-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Maritimo?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 25%, Maritimo 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Casa Pia and 75% for Maritimo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Casa Pia have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Casa Pia's games and 100% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Casa Pia vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Casa Pia's matches and 75% of Maritimo's.
Do Casa Pia and Maritimo tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.