Casa Pia 1-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis

📋

Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Famalicao make the trip to Estádio Nacional to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Casa Pia (all games): 3W 2D 1L across 6 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.83 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Casa Pia have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Estádio Nacional, Casa Pia have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nacional. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 1.83 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Nacional this season.

Famalicao have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Famalicao away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.83 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.40 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Casa Pia have seen both teams score in just 0% of their matches, Famalicao in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

Trading Data

Casa Pia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.

Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 83% of games.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Casa Pia 17% | Famalicao 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Casa Pia 17% | Famalicao 17%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.93 xG and Famalicao 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.744 / defence 0.834 | Famalicao attack 0.716 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.159. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Casa Pia games / 40 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 39% | Draw 35% | Famalicao 26%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Famalicao 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Famalicao's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Casa Pia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 1.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 0% | Famalicao 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights