Casa Pia 0-0 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boavista at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Boavista fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Casa Pia and Boavista meet at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Monday 5 February 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Casa Pia have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Casa Pia have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Boavista's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Boavista have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Casa Pia, 0.50 for Boavista — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Casa Pia 1W, Boavista 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Boavista — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 43% versus Boavista 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 42% | Boavista 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.06 xG and Boavista 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.641 / defence 1.235 | Boavista attack 0.996 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.280. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Casa Pia games / 53 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 26% | Draw 25% | Boavista 49%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Boavista 2.04. Boavista hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Boavista at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boavista if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 50% | Boavista 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Monday 5 Feb 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 26% | Draw 25% | Boavista 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Casa Pia 1.06 / Boavista 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.641 / def 1.235 | Boavista attack 0.996 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Boavista (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Boavista xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Boavista kick off?
Casa Pia vs Boavista kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 5 February 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Boavista?
Casa Pia 0 - 0 Boavista.
Where is Casa Pia vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Boavista part of?
Casa Pia vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 26% chance of winning, Boavista a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Casa Pia and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Boavista?
Record (3 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 2 | Boavista 0W.
What form are Casa Pia and Boavista in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Boavista (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Casa Pia's attack rating (0.64) and Boavista's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (1.00x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
26%
3.90
25%
3.95
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.64
1.57
Boavista xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
5%
18.83
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.57 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 16W 12D 25L from 53 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boavista, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 23L across 53 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.21 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 7W 7D 12L from 26 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Boavista's away record stands at 7W 3D 16L across 26 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.32 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 66%.
Last 53 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Boavista in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 16W 12D 25L in their last 53 games (1.13 PPG), while Boavista have gone 17W 13D 23L in their last 53 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Boavista away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.08 PPG; Boavista away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Casa Pia
3
Draws
1
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Boavista?
From 6 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 2, Boavista have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2025, when Boavista 2-3 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Boavista?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 42%, Boavista 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Casa Pia) and 62% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Casa Pia have failed to score in 38% of games; Boavista in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Boavista?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 62% of Boavista's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Casa Pia's recent games and 62% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Boavista tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 31% of their recent matches, Boavista in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Casa Pia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia and Boavista finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.06 xG and Boavista 1.57 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Casa Pia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Boavista landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.64 / defence 1.24 against Boavista attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 26% | Draw 25% | Boavista 49%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 42%, Boavista 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Boavista's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.13 PPG, Boavista 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Boavista (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.