Boavista 3-0 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Boavista at 40%, yet in-form Pacos Ferreira provide a compelling counter-argument — this Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio do Bessa Século XXI plays host to Boavista versus Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Monday 16 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Boavista (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Boavista have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pacos Ferreira's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Pacos Ferreira have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pacos Ferreira are 3.00 PPG clear of Boavista in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (3.00 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Boavista have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Pacos Ferreira in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.11 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.968 / defence 1.150 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.996 / away 0.948. Data: 1 Boavista games / 1 Pacos Ferreira games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Boavista 40% | Draw 30% | Pacos Ferreira 30%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Pacos Ferreira 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Boavista as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pacos Ferreira (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boavista if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Monday 16 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 40% | Draw 30% | Pacos Ferreira 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Boavista 1.11 / Pacos Ferreira 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.968 / def 1.150 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.996 / away 0.948 • Poisson stance: Boavista (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Pacos Ferreira xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 August 2021 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira?
Boavista 3 - 0 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 40% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Boavista and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Pacos Ferreira?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Boavista and Pacos Ferreira in?
Boavista (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Boavista's attack rating (0.97) and Pacos Ferreira's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.85x) against Boavista's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
40%
2.53
30%
3.29
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.04
0.93
Pacos Ferreira xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Boavista and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Boavista and 0.93 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Boavista come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Boavista, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pacos Ferreira sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pacos Ferreira carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Boavista — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Boavista are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Pacos Ferreira in 0%.
Defensively: Pacos Ferreira in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Early Season
Pacos Ferreira
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Boavista or Pacos Ferreira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boavista have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pacos Ferreira in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Boavista go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Boavista won 3-0 on 16 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boavista have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Boavista
1
Draws
0
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Boavista have won 3, Pacos Ferreira have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 1-3 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Pacos Ferreira?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Boavista's recent matches and 0% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Boavista's recent games and 0% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Boavista run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pacos Ferreira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista beat Pacos Ferreira 3-0 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.11 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.93 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Boavista beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pacos Ferreira landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 40% | Draw 30% | Pacos Ferreira 30%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 100%, Pacos Ferreira 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacos Ferreira arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Boavista winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Boavista scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pacos Ferreira managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.