Boavista 0-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Boavista at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boavista vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Casa Pia make the trip to Estádio do Bessa Século XXI to face Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Monday 13 February 2023 at 21:15 UTC.
Form
Boavista (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Boavista are significantly better at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI than their overall form suggests.
Casa Pia have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 5W 1D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.78 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Boavista, 1 for Casa Pia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Casa Pia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Boavista goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Casa Pia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 58% versus Casa Pia 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 58% | Casa Pia 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.79 xG and Casa Pia 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 1.124 / defence 1.232 | Casa Pia attack 0.867 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 0.981. Data: 53 Boavista games / 19 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 55% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 22%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Casa Pia 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Boavista (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Boavista are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Boavista 70% | Casa Pia 44% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Monday 13 Feb 2023, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 55% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Boavista 1.79 / Casa Pia 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 1.124 / def 1.232 | Casa Pia attack 0.867 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.391 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Boavista (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Casa Pia xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Casa Pia kick off?
Boavista vs Casa Pia kicked off at 21:15 on Monday 13 February 2023 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Casa Pia?
Boavista 0 - 0 Casa Pia.
Where is Boavista vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Casa Pia part of?
Boavista vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 55% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Boavista and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Casa Pia?
Record (1 meetings): Boavista 0W | Draws 0 | Casa Pia 1W.
What form are Boavista and Casa Pia in?
Boavista (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Casa Pia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Boavista's attack rating (1.12) and Casa Pia's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.87x) against Boavista's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.31
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.83
1.05
Casa Pia xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
4%
27.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Boavista and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Boavista and 1.05 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Casa Pia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Boavista come into this having played 19 games, going 7W 4D 8L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Casa Pia sit at 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (9W 3D 7L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Boavista against 1.58 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Boavista's home form reads 4W 3D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Casa Pia have taken 1.78 points per game from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Boavista are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 0.95 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Casa Pia in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 9W 3D 7L in their last 19 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Casa Pia away?
Casa Pia's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.67 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Boavista or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boavista have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boavista have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Boavista
3
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Casa Pia?
From 6 meetings on record, Boavista have won 1, Casa Pia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2025, when Boavista 2-3 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Casa Pia?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 67%, Casa Pia 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Boavista) and 56% (Casa Pia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Casa Pia in 33%; Casa Pia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Casa Pia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Boavista's games and 44% of Casa Pia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boavista vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Boavista's matches and 56% of Casa Pia's.
Do Boavista and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Boavista's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista and Casa Pia finished level at 0-0 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.79 xG and Casa Pia 1.05 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Boavista fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Casa Pia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 1.12 / defence 1.23 against Casa Pia attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 55% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 22%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 58%, Casa Pia 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Casa Pia's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boavista 1.32 PPG, Casa Pia 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Boavista (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.