Benfica 1-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Vizela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benfica host Vizela at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 March 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Benfica — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benfica have posted 6W 1D 3L at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vizela stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Benfica have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Benfica have won 1, Vizela 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Benfica winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Benfica in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Vizela in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benfica 64% and Vizela 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 68% | Vizela 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.65 xG and Vizela 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.497 / defence 1.037 | Vizela attack 0.906 / defence 1.673. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.325. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.497 — their λ of 2.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vizela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.673 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Benfica games / 25 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 66% | Draw 20% | Vizela 15%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Vizela 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.65 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 70% | Vizela 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 66% | Draw 20% | Vizela 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 68% | xG Benfica 2.65 / Vizela 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.497 / def 1.037 | Vizela attack 0.906 / def 1.673 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Benfica (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Vizela xG
68%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Vizela kick off?
Benfica vs Vizela kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Vizela?
Benfica 1 - 1 Vizela.
Where is Benfica vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Vizela part of?
Benfica vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 66% chance of winning, Vizela a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Benfica and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Vizela?
Record (1 meetings): Benfica 1W | Draws 0 | Vizela 0W.
What form are Benfica and Vizela in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Vizela (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.50x the league average against Vizela's defence at 1.67x — combine the two and it projects 2.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vizela's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
66%
1.52
20%
5.11
15%
6.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.65
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.89
1.25
Vizela xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.11
20%
Draw
6.89
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
7%
14.10
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
1%
97.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Benfica and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Benfica and 1.25 for Vizela, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Vizela?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica's recent record stands at 18W 3D 4L from 25 games, a 2.28 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vizela, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 11L across 25 games — 0.96 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.32 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vizela heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Benfica have managed 8W 1D 3L from 12 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vizela's away record stands at 2W 4D 6L across 12 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.08 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Vizela in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Vizela in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 18W 3D 4L in their last 25 games (2.28 PPG), while Vizela have gone 5W 9D 11L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Vizela away?
Benfica's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.08 PPG; Vizela away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Benfica or Vizela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Vizela in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Benfica go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Feb 2024, when Benfica won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Vizela specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Benfica
1
Draws
0
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Vizela?
From 6 meetings on record, Benfica have won 5, Vizela have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Benfica 6-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Vizela?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benfica at 67%, Vizela at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Benfica and 75% for Vizela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vizela in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Vizela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Benfica's games and 67% of Vizela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Benfica's matches and 75% of Vizela's.
Do Benfica and Vizela tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Vizela in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica and Vizela share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 26, as Benfica and Vizela drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.65 xG and Vizela 1.25 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Benfica fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.50 / defence 1.04 against Vizela attack 0.91 / defence 1.67, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 66% | Draw 20% | Vizela 15%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 68%, Vizela 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Vizela's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Vizela (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.