Benfica 3-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benfica at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benfica vs SC Braga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica plays host to Benfica versus SC Braga in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Benfica's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Benfica have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Benfica are significantly better at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica than their overall form suggests.
SC Braga have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, SC Braga have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Benfica, 2 for SC Braga and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Benfica — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
SC Braga — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 39% versus SC Braga 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 62% | SC Braga 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.20 xG and SC Braga 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.499 / defence 0.630 | SC Braga attack 1.352 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.286. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.499 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SC Braga have an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — the away xG of 1.09 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Benfica's defence rating of 0.630 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Benfica games / 64 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 62% | Draw 20% | SC Braga 18%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | SC Braga 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Benfica 40% | SC Braga 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 62% | Draw 20% | SC Braga 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG Benfica 2.20 / SC Braga 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.499 / def 0.630 | SC Braga attack 1.352 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Benfica (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.09
SC Braga xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs SC Braga kick off?
Benfica vs SC Braga kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs SC Braga?
Benfica 3 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is Benfica vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs SC Braga part of?
Benfica vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 62% chance of winning, SC Braga a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Benfica and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and SC Braga?
Record (5 meetings): Benfica 3W | Draws 0 | SC Braga 2W.
What form are Benfica and SC Braga in?
Benfica (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. SC Braga (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Benfica's attacking strength (1.50x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.20. Flip it around — SC Braga's attack (1.35x) against Benfica's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
62%
1.61
20%
4.95
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.30
1.09
SC Braga xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
11%
9.05
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
2%
51.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Benfica and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Benfica and 1.09 for SC Braga, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs SC Braga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benfica's recent record stands at 51W 7D 6L from 64 games, a 2.50 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
SC Braga, meanwhile, have gone 44W 8D 12L across 64 games — 2.19 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.50 PPG for Benfica against 2.19 for SC Braga. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Benfica have managed 28W 3D 1L from 32 games — 2.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Braga's away record stands at 22W 3D 7L across 32 trips, a 2.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Benfica are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 2.16 scored and 1.11 conceded. SC Braga's attacking output running into Benfica's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; SC Braga in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Current Season
SC Braga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 51W 7D 6L in their last 64 games (2.50 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 44W 8D 12L in their last 64 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or SC Braga away?
Benfica's home record (2.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.72 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.16 PPG.
Have Benfica or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, SC Braga in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 6-1 on 7 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benfica have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Braga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Benfica
3
Draws
3
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and SC Braga?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 4, SC Braga have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Benfica 2-2 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and SC Braga?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 44%, SC Braga 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Benfica and 72% for SC Braga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; SC Braga in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Benfica's recent matches and 53% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Benfica's matches and 72% of SC Braga's.
Do Benfica and SC Braga tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SC Braga.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat SC Braga 3-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.20 xG and SC Braga 1.09 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.50 / defence 0.63 against SC Braga attack 1.35 / defence 0.99, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 62% | Draw 20% | SC Braga 18%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 62%, SC Braga 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Braga's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benfica 2.50 PPG, SC Braga 2.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benfica win broke the near-deadlock. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.