Belenenses 1-4 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sporting CP at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Belenenses vs Sporting CP encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Sporting CP travel to Estádio Nacional to take on Belenenses. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 2 February 2022, 20:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Belenenses stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Belenenses, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Belenenses at Estádio Nacional this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 home games — 0.89 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Sporting CP have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sporting CP's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 1L across 9 road games this term (2.44 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sporting CP are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Belenenses, 1 for Sporting CP and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Sporting CP winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Belenenses in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Sporting CP in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Belenenses 42% versus Sporting CP 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Belenenses 32% | Sporting CP 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Belenenses 0.86 xG and Sporting CP 2.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Belenenses attack 0.825 / defence 1.532 | Sporting CP attack 1.121 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.420. Data: 19 Belenenses games / 19 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Belenenses 11% | Draw 18% | Sporting CP 71%. Fair-value odds: Belenenses 9.09 | Draw 5.56 | Sporting CP 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Belenenses 67% | Sporting CP 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Belenenses vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Nacional • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Feb 2022, 20:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Belenenses 11% | Draw 18% | Sporting CP 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 54% | xG Belenenses 0.86 / Sporting CP 2.44 • Poisson strength factors: Belenenses attack 0.825 / def 1.532 | Sporting CP attack 1.121 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Belenenses xG
Expected Goals
2.44
Sporting CP xG
54%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Belenenses vs Sporting CP kick off?
Belenenses vs Sporting CP kicked off at 20:45 on Wednesday 2 February 2022 at Estádio Nacional.
What was the final score in Belenenses vs Sporting CP?
Belenenses 1 - 4 Sporting CP.
Where is Belenenses vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional.
What competition is Belenenses vs Sporting CP part of?
Belenenses vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Belenenses vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Belenenses a 11% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 71% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Belenenses vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Belenenses and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Belenenses vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Sporting CP?
Record (1 meetings): Belenenses 0W | Draws 0 | Sporting CP 1W.
What form are Belenenses and Sporting CP in?
Belenenses (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Sporting CP (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Belenenses's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Sporting CP's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Sporting CP's attack versus Belenenses's defence, projects 2.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-3 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
11%
9.50
18%
5.46
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Belenenses xG
Total xG
3.30
2.44
Sporting CP xG
9.50
11%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
9%
11.46
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
1%
108.85
30%
3.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.6 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Belenenses vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Belenenses and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Belenenses and 2.44 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Belenenses vs Sporting CP?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Belenenses come into this having played 19 games, going 2W 6D 11L for 0.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Belenenses is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sporting CP sit at 2.47 PPG from 19 outings (15W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.84 PPG clear of Belenenses — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Belenenses's home form reads 2W 2D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Sporting CP have taken 2.44 points per game from 9 outings (7W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Belenenses are averaging 0.58 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 1.84 scored and 0.63 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Belenenses
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Belenenses and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Belenenses have gone 2W 6D 11L in their last 19 games (0.63 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 15W 2D 2L in their last 19 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Belenenses at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Belenenses at home: 0.89 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.44 PPG.
Have Belenenses or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Belenenses have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Belenenses
0
Draws
2
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Sporting CP?
From 2 meetings on record, Belenenses have won 0, Sporting CP have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Belenenses and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2022, when Belenenses 1-4 Sporting CP.
Who has won more matches between Belenenses and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sporting CP see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Belenenses 67%, Sporting CP 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Belenenses) and 56% (Sporting CP). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP in 44%; Belenenses have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Belenenses home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Belenenses play Sporting CP?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Belenenses's games and 56% of Sporting CP's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Belenenses vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Belenenses's matches and 56% of Sporting CP's.
Do Belenenses and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Belenenses have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Belenenses.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Belenenses 1-4 at Estádio Nacional, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Belenenses 0.86 xG and Sporting CP 2.44 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sporting CP outscored their 2.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Belenenses attack 0.82 / defence 1.53 against Sporting CP attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Belenenses 11% | Draw 18% | Sporting CP 71%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Belenenses 32%, Sporting CP 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Belenenses's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Sporting CP's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 0.63. That form edge translated into the three points. Belenenses (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.