Arouca 4-1 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arouca at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arouca vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Famalicao make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to face Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Monday 10 October 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
Arouca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arouca have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estádio Municipal de Arouca — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Famalicao (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Arouca against 1.30 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Arouca lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Arouca — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Famalicao — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 52% versus Famalicao 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 52% | Famalicao 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.09 xG and Famalicao 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.843 / defence 1.423 | Famalicao attack 0.689 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.095. Data: 42 Arouca games / 42 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 36% | Draw 29% | Famalicao 35%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Famalicao 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arouca are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arouca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 50% | Famalicao 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 36% | Draw 29% | Famalicao 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Arouca 1.09 / Famalicao 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.843 / def 1.423 | Famalicao attack 0.689 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Arouca (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Famalicao xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Famalicao kick off?
Arouca vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 10 October 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Famalicao?
Arouca 4 - 1 Famalicao.
Where is Arouca vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Famalicao part of?
Arouca vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 36% chance of winning, Famalicao a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Arouca and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Famalicao?
Record (2 meetings): Arouca 1W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 0W.
What form are Arouca and Famalicao in?
Arouca (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Famalicao (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arouca's attack at 0.84x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.69x) against Arouca's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
36%
2.80
29%
3.40
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.17
1.07
Famalicao xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Arouca and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Arouca and 1.07 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arouca's recent record stands at 9W 13D 20L from 42 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 18L across 42 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Arouca against 1.10 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 6W 5D 10L from 21 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Famalicao's away record stands at 4W 6D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arouca are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.19 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 9W 13D 20L in their last 42 games (0.95 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Famalicao away?
Arouca's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.10 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 4-1 on 10 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Arouca
3
Draws
3
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 4, Famalicao have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Famalicao 1-0 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Famalicao?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 48%, Famalicao 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Arouca) and 48% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Arouca have failed to score in 38% of games; Famalicao in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Arouca's recent matches and 48% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Arouca's recent games and 48% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Famalicao tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arouca run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Famalicao.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Famalicao 4-1 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.09 xG and Famalicao 1.07 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Arouca beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.84 / defence 1.42 against Famalicao attack 0.69 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 36% | Draw 29% | Famalicao 35%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 52%, Famalicao 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Famalicao's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arouca 0.95 PPG, Famalicao 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.