Arouca 1-2 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Famalicao at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Arouca face Famalicao.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Famalicao make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to face Arouca in Primeira Liga (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Arouca's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Arouca have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Famalicao (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Famalicao's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Arouca against 1.70 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Arouca's last 10 home games and Famalicao's last 10 away games) — Arouca have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Famalicao in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Arouca edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Arouca 0–0 Famalicao — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Arouca — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Famalicao — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 54% versus Famalicao 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 57% | Famalicao 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.19 xG and Famalicao 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.795 / defence 1.022 | Famalicao attack 1.066 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.175. Arouca's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Data: built from Arouca's last 61 games and Famalicao's last 61.
Result probabilities: Arouca 34% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 39%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 2.93 | Draw 3.68 | Famalicao 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Arouca 60% (last 10 home games) | Famalicao 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 34% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Arouca 1.19 / Famalicao 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.795 / def 1.022 | Famalicao attack 1.066 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Famalicao xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Arouca vs Famalicao FAQs
What time does Arouca vs Famalicao kick off?
Arouca vs Famalicao kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Famalicao?
Arouca 1 - 2 Famalicao.
Where is Arouca vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Famalicao part of?
Arouca vs Famalicao is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 34% chance of winning, Famalicao a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Arouca and Famalicao will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Arouca vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arouca's attack at 0.80x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (1.07x) against Arouca's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Arouca's last 61 games and Famalicao's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
34%
2.93
27%
3.68
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.46
1.28
Famalicao xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
9%
10.54
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Arouca vs Famalicao Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Arouca and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Arouca and 1.28 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arouca's recent record stands at 20W 15D 26L from 61 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 19W 22D 20L across 61 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Arouca against 1.30 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 10W 8D 12L from their last 30 home games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Famalicao's away record stands at 8W 10D 12L across their last 30 away games, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arouca are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.15 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
Arouca (Home) vs Famalicao (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Arouca
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Arouca vs Famalicao Form FAQs
What form are Arouca and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 20W 15D 26L in their last 61 games (1.23 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 19W 22D 20L in their last 61 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Famalicao away?
Arouca's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.27 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Arouca or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Famalicao in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Famalicao have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won Arouca 4-1 Famalicao on 10 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Arouca
3
Draws
4
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Arouca vs Famalicao H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Famalicao?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Arouca have won 3, Famalicao have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Famalicao last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Famalicao 1-0 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 47%, Famalicao 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Arouca) and 47% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Arouca have failed to score in 37% of games; Famalicao in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Arouca vs Famalicao Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Arouca and Famalicao matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Arouca's recent matches and 53% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Arouca and Famalicao matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Arouca's recent games and 47% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Famalicao matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Arouca's recent matches and 80% of Famalicao's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Arouca 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Arouca 1-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.19 xG and Famalicao 1.28 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against Famalicao attack 1.07 / defence 1.10, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 34% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 39%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 57%, Famalicao 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Famalicao's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arouca 1.23 PPG, Famalicao 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Primeira Liga fixtures — matchday 28
All Primeira Liga fixtures →
More Portuguese football predictions →