Arouca 0-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arouca vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Benfica travel to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to take on Arouca. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 January 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Arouca — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's home record at Estádio Municipal de Arouca: 3W 1D 4L from 8 Primeira Liga appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Benfica have posted 7W 1D 1L from 9 away outings — 2.44 PPG. They are averaging 2.89 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Arouca, 1 for Benfica and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Benfica winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Arouca trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Benfica trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arouca 65% and Benfica 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 65% | Benfica 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.00 xG and Benfica 3.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.856 / defence 1.680 | Benfica attack 1.389 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.412. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — the away xG of 3.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Arouca games / 18 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 7% | Draw 12% | Benfica 81%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 14.29 | Draw 8.33 | Benfica 1.23. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (81%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 4.29. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.29 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 61% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.29 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 62% | Benfica 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 7% | Draw 12% | Benfica 81% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 61% | xG Arouca 1.00 / Benfica 3.30 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.856 / def 1.680 | Benfica attack 1.389 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Benfica (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
3.30
Benfica xG
61%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Benfica kick off?
Arouca vs Benfica kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 January 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Benfica?
Arouca 0 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Arouca vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Benfica part of?
Arouca vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 7% chance of winning, Benfica a 81% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Arouca and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Benfica?
Record (1 meetings): Arouca 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 1W.
What form are Arouca and Benfica in?
Arouca (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Benfica (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Arouca's attack at 0.86x the league average against Benfica's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Arouca's defence, projects 3.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-3 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (8.1%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
7%
13.62
12%
8.48
81%
1.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 3
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.1%
Away win
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Arouca xG
Total xG
4.29
3.30
Benfica xG
13.62
7%
Home win
8.48
12%
Draw
1.24
81%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
4%
27.00
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
0%
–
30%
3.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 4.4 |
| 1 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 |
| 2 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.2 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Arouca and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Arouca and 3.30 for Benfica, a combined total of 4.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arouca's recent record stands at 3W 5D 9L from 17 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 12W 2D 3L across 17 games — 2.24 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 3W 1D 4L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.82 PPG overall — Arouca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Benfica's away record stands at 6W 1D 1L across 8 trips, a 2.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arouca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.82 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arouca have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Benfica in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Benfica in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 games (0.82 PPG), while Benfica have gone 12W 2D 3L in their last 17 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.25 PPG; Benfica away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Arouca or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Benfica in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Benfica won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arouca's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Arouca
1
Draws
9
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 0, Benfica have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arouca 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 62%, Benfica 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Arouca and 62% for Benfica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Benfica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Arouca's games and 50% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arouca vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Arouca's matches and 62% of Benfica's.
Do Arouca and Benfica tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Benfica in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Arouca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Arouca 0-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.00 xG and Benfica 3.30 xG, a combined 4.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Arouca fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Benfica landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.86 / defence 1.68 against Benfica attack 1.39 / defence 1.05, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 7% | Draw 12% | Benfica 81%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 81%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 65%, Benfica 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.