Arouca 0-3 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Arouca face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Benfica travel to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to take on Arouca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 January 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Arouca — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's home record at Estádio Municipal de Arouca: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Benfica have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Benfica, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Arouca.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2023, ended 0–3 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Arouca trading profile (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Benfica trading profile (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 37% versus Benfica 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 33% | Benfica 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 0.82 xG and Benfica 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.868 / defence 1.006 | Benfica attack 1.105 / defence 0.617. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.196. Benfica's defence strength of 0.617 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Arouca games / 49 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 23% | Draw 28% | Benfica 49%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Benfica 2.04. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 30% | Benfica 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 23% | Draw 28% | Benfica 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Arouca 0.82 / Benfica 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.868 / def 1.006 | Benfica attack 1.105 / def 0.617 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Benfica (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Benfica xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Benfica kick off?
Arouca vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 January 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Benfica?
Arouca 0 - 3 Benfica.
Where is Arouca vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Benfica part of?
Arouca vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 23% chance of winning, Benfica a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Arouca and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Benfica?
Record (4 meetings): Arouca 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 4W.
What form are Arouca and Benfica in?
Arouca (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Benfica (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Arouca's attack at 0.87x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Arouca's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
23%
4.35
28%
3.54
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.15
1.33
Benfica xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
6%
16.46
22%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 15.5 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Arouca and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Arouca and 1.33 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arouca's recent record stands at 19W 13D 17L from 49 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 39W 6D 4L across 49 games — 2.51 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 12W 4D 9L from 25 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 19W 3D 3L across 25 trips, a 2.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arouca are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.24 scored and 0.61 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Benfica in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 19W 13D 17L in their last 49 games (1.43 PPG), while Benfica have gone 39W 6D 4L in their last 49 (2.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.60 PPG; Benfica away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Arouca or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Benfica in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Benfica won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arouca's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Arouca
1
Draws
9
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 0, Benfica have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arouca 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Arouca 28% BTTS, Benfica 28%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Arouca) and 48% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Arouca keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Benfica in 64%; Arouca have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Arouca's recent matches and 28% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Arouca's recent games and 48% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Benfica tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Benfica in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Arouca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Arouca 0-3 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 0.82 xG and Benfica 1.33 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Arouca fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Benfica attack 1.10 / defence 0.62, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 23% | Draw 28% | Benfica 49%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 33%, Benfica 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.