Arouca 0-0 Belenenses – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arouca at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arouca vs Belenenses fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 34 as Arouca welcome Belenenses to Estádio Municipal de Arouca. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Arouca have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arouca have posted 2W 2D 6L at Estádio Municipal de Arouca — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Belenenses stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Belenenses's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Arouca 0.90 PPG, Belenenses 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Arouca, 1 for Belenenses and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Belenenses winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Arouca in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Belenenses in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 54% versus Belenenses 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 52% | Belenenses 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.11 xG and Belenenses 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.737 / defence 1.368 | Belenenses attack 0.673 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.170. Arouca's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Belenenses bring a strong defensive rating of 1.399 — this is suppressing Arouca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Arouca games / 33 Belenenses games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 35% | Draw 31% | Belenenses 34%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Belenenses 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arouca are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arouca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 40% | Belenenses 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Belenenses | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 35% | Draw 31% | Belenenses 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Arouca 1.11 / Belenenses 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.737 / def 1.368 | Belenenses attack 0.673 / def 1.399 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Arouca (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Belenenses xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Belenenses kick off?
Arouca vs Belenenses kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Belenenses?
Arouca 0 - 0 Belenenses.
Where is Arouca vs Belenenses being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Belenenses part of?
Arouca vs Belenenses is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Belenenses?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 35% chance of winning, Belenenses a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Belenenses?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Arouca and Belenenses will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Belenenses have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Belenenses?
Record (1 meetings): Arouca 0W | Draws 0 | Belenenses 1W.
What form are Arouca and Belenenses in?
Arouca (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Belenenses (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Arouca's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Belenenses's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Belenenses's attack versus Arouca's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
35%
2.84
31%
3.21
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.19
1.08
Belenenses xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Belenenses?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Arouca and Belenenses expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Arouca and 1.08 for Belenenses, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Belenenses?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arouca come into this having played 33 games, going 7W 9D 17L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Belenenses sit at 0.76 PPG from 33 outings (5W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Arouca on 0.91 PPG, Belenenses on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Arouca's home form reads 5W 3D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Belenenses have taken 0.44 points per game from 16 outings (0W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arouca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Arouca are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Belenenses are on 0.70 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Current Season
Belenenses
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Belenenses in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 7W 9D 17L in their last 33 games (0.91 PPG), while Belenenses have gone 5W 10D 18L in their last 33 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Belenenses away?
Arouca's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.12 PPG; Belenenses away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arouca and Belenenses runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arouca
1
Draws
1
Belenenses
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Belenenses?
From 2 meetings on record, Arouca have won 0, Belenenses have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Belenenses last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2022, when Arouca 0-0 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Belenenses?
Belenenses have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 50%, Belenenses 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Arouca) and 25% (Belenenses).
On the defensive side: Arouca have failed to score in 38% of games; Belenenses in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Belenenses away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Belenenses?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Arouca's recent matches and 38% of Belenenses's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Belenenses usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Arouca's recent games and 25% of Belenenses's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Belenenses tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Belenenses in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Arouca's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca and Belenenses finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.11 xG and Belenenses 1.08 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Arouca fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Belenenses landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.74 / defence 1.37 against Belenenses attack 0.67 / defence 1.40, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 35% | Draw 31% | Belenenses 34%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 52%, Belenenses 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Belenenses's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arouca 0.91 PPG, Belenenses 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Belenenses (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.