Alverca 2-1 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Moreirense at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alverca vs Moreirense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Moreirense travel to FC Alverca Sports Complex to take on Alverca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alverca stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Alverca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alverca's home record at FC Alverca Sports Complex: 4W 1D 4L from 9 Primeira Liga appearances (1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Moreirense have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Moreirense's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alverca 1.30 PPG, Moreirense 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Alverca's 22% rate and Moreirense's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Alverca have won 0, Moreirense 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Moreirense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alverca trading profile (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Moreirense trading profile (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alverca 41% versus Moreirense 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alverca 53% | Moreirense 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alverca 0.95 xG and Moreirense 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alverca attack 0.722 / defence 1.107 | Moreirense attack 1.017 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.262. Alverca's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Alverca games / 51 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alverca 25% | Draw 27% | Moreirense 48%. Fair-value odds: Alverca 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Moreirense 2.08. Moreirense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Moreirense are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Alverca 22% | Moreirense 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alverca vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: FC Alverca Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alverca 25% | Draw 27% | Moreirense 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Alverca 0.95 / Moreirense 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Alverca attack 0.722 / def 1.107 | Moreirense attack 1.017 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Alverca xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Moreirense xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alverca vs Moreirense kick off?
Alverca vs Moreirense kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Alverca vs Moreirense?
Alverca 2 - 1 Moreirense.
Where is Alverca vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What competition is Alverca vs Moreirense part of?
Alverca vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Alverca vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Alverca a 25% chance of winning, Moreirense a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Alverca and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Alverca vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Moreirense?
Record (1 meetings): Alverca 0W | Draws 0 | Moreirense 1W.
What form are Alverca and Moreirense in?
Alverca (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Moreirense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alverca's attack at 0.72x the league average against Moreirense's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Moreirense's attack versus Alverca's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
25%
3.94
27%
3.72
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Alverca xG
Total xG
2.38
1.42
Moreirense xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
6%
16.32
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alverca vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Alverca and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Alverca and 1.42 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Alverca vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Alverca have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 6W 2D 9L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Alverca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Moreirense's form line: 8W 3D 6L from 17 games, 1.59 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Moreirense are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alverca.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alverca have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L).
On the road, Moreirense have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Alverca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.41 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Moreirense in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alverca
Blended
Moreirense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alverca and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Alverca have gone 6W 2D 9L in their last 17 games (1.18 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 8W 3D 6L in their last 17 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alverca at home or Moreirense away?
Alverca's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alverca at home: 1.44 PPG; Moreirense away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Alverca or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alverca have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Moreirense in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Alverca
0
Draws
1
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Moreirense?
From 2 meetings on record, Alverca have won 1, Moreirense have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alverca and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Alverca 2-1 Moreirense.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alverca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Alverca 22% BTTS, Moreirense 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Alverca) and 44% (Moreirense).
On the defensive side: Alverca keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Moreirense in 44%; Alverca have failed to score in 33% of games; Moreirense in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alverca home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alverca play Moreirense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Alverca's recent matches and 33% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alverca vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Alverca's recent games and 44% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alverca and Moreirense tend to score early?
Alverca have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alverca defy the odds to beat Moreirense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alverca beat Moreirense 2-1 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 0.95 xG and Moreirense 1.42 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Alverca beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.72 / defence 1.11 against Moreirense attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alverca 25% | Draw 27% | Moreirense 48%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Alverca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 53%, Moreirense 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alverca's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Moreirense's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Alverca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alverca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.