Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 24 as Zaglebie Lubin welcome Pogon Szczecin to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 March 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Zaglebie Lubin) versus 1.40 (Pogon Szczecin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zaglebie Lubin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Pogon Szczecin in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 2 for Pogon Szczecin and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 0–3 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 49% versus Pogon Szczecin 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Pogon Szczecin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.19 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.847 / defence 1.251 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.168 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.102. Data: 57 Zaglebie Lubin games / 57 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 28% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 47%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Pogon Szczecin 2.13. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Pogon Szczecin 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 28% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.19 / Pogon Szczecin 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.847 / def 1.251 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.168 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Pogon Szczecin xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 28% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (3 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 2W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 0.85x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
28%
3.53
25%
4.06
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.80
1.61
Pogon Szczecin xG
3.53
28%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
6%
17.68
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.61 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 57 games, going 19W 10D 28L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.77 PPG from 57 outings (28W 17D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 9W 7D 13L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.62 points per game from 29 outings (12W 11D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.74 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 10D 28L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 28W 17D 12L in their last 57 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.17 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Pogon Szczecin have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2025, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
6
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 62%, Pogon Szczecin 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 38% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 59% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 38% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Zaglebie Lubin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.19 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.61 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.85 / defence 1.25 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.17 / defence 1.11, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 28% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 47%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 60%, Pogon Szczecin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.