Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice meet at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 March 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Piast Gliwice arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 52% versus Piast Gliwice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 65% | Piast Gliwice 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.17 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.038 / defence 1.458 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.123 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.079. Data: 23 Zaglebie Lubin games / 23 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 24% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 50%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Piast Gliwice 2.00. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 70% | Piast Gliwice 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 24% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.17 / Piast Gliwice 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.038 / def 1.458 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.123 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Piast Gliwice xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 24% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (1.12x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
24%
4.19
26%
3.84
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.94
1.77
Piast Gliwice xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
4%
24.56
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.77 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 7W 3D 13L from 23 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 9L across 23 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.30 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 5W 1D 5L from 11 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Zaglebie Lubin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 4W 3D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.35 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 7W 3D 13L in their last 23 games (1.04 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 8W 6D 9L in their last 23 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.45 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Zaglebie Lubin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
3
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 73%, Piast Gliwice 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 27% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 36% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 27% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zaglebie Lubin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 24, as Zaglebie Lubin and Piast Gliwice drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.17 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.77 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Piast Gliwice landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.04 / defence 1.46 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.12 / defence 1.02, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 24% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 50%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 65%, Piast Gliwice 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.04 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.