Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin plays host to Zaglebie Lubin versus Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Monday 24 October 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lechia Gdansk (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Zaglebie Lubin's 1.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Lechia Gdansk's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Zaglebie Lubin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Lechia Gdansk in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 1 for Lechia Gdansk and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Zaglebie Lubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lechia Gdansk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 52% versus Lechia Gdansk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 56% | Lechia Gdansk 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.43 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.888 / defence 0.980 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.000 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.116. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Zaglebie Lubin games / 46 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 28% | Lechia Gdansk 28%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Lechia Gdansk 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 70% | Lechia Gdansk 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 28% | Lechia Gdansk 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.43 / Lechia Gdansk 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.888 / def 0.980 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.000 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Lechia Gdansk xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 3 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 44% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (2 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 0W | Draws 1 | Lechia Gdansk 1W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Lechia Gdansk in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 0.89x the league average against Lechia Gdansk's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lechia Gdansk's attack (1.00x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.59
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.52
1.09
Lechia Gdansk xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.09 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 10D 21L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lechia Gdansk sit at 1.41 PPG from 46 outings (18W 11D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.41 for Lechia Gdansk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 8W 7D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Lechia Gdansk have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (6W 4D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Attack vs Defence
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.35 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 15W 10D 21L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 18W 11D 17L in their last 46 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.35 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zaglebie Lubin won 6-2 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
2
Draws
3
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 65%, Lechia Gdansk 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 61% (Lechia Gdansk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 26% of games; Lechia Gdansk in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 52% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's matches and 61% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lechia Gdansk run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.43 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.09 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.00 / defence 1.25, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 28% | Lechia Gdansk 28%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Lechia Gdansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 56%, Lechia Gdansk 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.