Zaglebie Lubin 1-3 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zaglebie Lubin face Lechia Gdansk.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Zagłębia Lubin plays host to Zaglebie Lubin versus Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa (matchday 21). Kick-off: Monday 17 February 2025 at 18:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Lechia Gdansk (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 2 for Lechia Gdansk and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2024, ended Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 Lechia Gdansk — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Zaglebie Lubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Lechia Gdansk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 40% versus Lechia Gdansk 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 40% | Lechia Gdansk 45%). Note also that Lechia Gdansk surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Zaglebie Lubin recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.53 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.878 / defence 1.133 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.920 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.077. Lechia Gdansk's defence rating of 1.228 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output up. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 54 games and Lechia Gdansk's last 20.

Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 27%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.17 | Draw 3.75 | Lechia Gdansk 3.66. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and Lechia Gdansk's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 40% (last 10 home games) | Lechia Gdansk 80% (last 10 away games).

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