Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Jagiellonia travel to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin to take on Zaglebie Lubin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 September 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Jagiellonia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Zaglebie Lubin) versus 1.30 (Jagiellonia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 2 for Jagiellonia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Jagiellonia trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 46% versus Jagiellonia 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 56% | Jagiellonia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.05 xG and Jagiellonia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.832 / defence 0.958 | Jagiellonia attack 0.940 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.176. Data: 41 Zaglebie Lubin games / 41 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 35% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 35%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Jagiellonia 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Zaglebie Lubin 50% | Jagiellonia 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 35% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.05 / Jagiellonia 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.832 / def 0.958 | Jagiellonia attack 0.940 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Jagiellonia xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 35% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia?
Record (2 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 0W | Draws 0 | Jagiellonia 2W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.83) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
35%
2.86
30%
3.35
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.11
1.06
Jagiellonia xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.06 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 7D 21L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.17 PPG from 41 outings (11W 15D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.12 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 7W 5D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (4W 7D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.15 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 13W 7D 21L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 11W 15D 15L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Jagiellonia away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.30 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jagiellonia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
3
Draws
6
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Jagiellonia have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 60%, Jagiellonia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 60% (Jagiellonia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 30% of games; Jagiellonia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 60% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Zaglebie Lubin's matches and 60% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.05 xG and Jagiellonia 1.06 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.83 / defence 0.96 against Jagiellonia attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 35% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 35%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 56%, Jagiellonia 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.12 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.