Wisla Plock 0-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Plock host Radomiak Radom at Orlen Stadion in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Orlen Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Radomiak Radom away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Plock 1.20 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Wisla Plock have won 1, Radomiak Radom 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 52% and Radomiak Radom 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 31% | Radomiak Radom 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.09 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.696 / defence 1.031 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.851 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.154. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Wisla Plock games / 63 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 36% | Draw 33% | Radomiak Radom 31%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Radomiak Radom 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 30% | Radomiak Radom 80%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 36% | Draw 33% | Radomiak Radom 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Wisla Plock 1.09 / Radomiak Radom 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.696 / def 1.031 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.851 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Radomiak Radom xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Wisla Plock 0 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 36% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom?
Record (5 meetings): Wisla Plock 1W | Draws 3 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
36%
2.80
33%
3.05
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.11
1.01
Radomiak Radom xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.01 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Plock come into this having played 29 games, going 12W 9D 8L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (9W 10D 10L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.55 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Wisla Plock's home form reads 8W 3D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (1W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.55 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 72%.
Last 29 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 12W 9D 8L in their last 29 games (1.55 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 9W 10D 10L in their last 29 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.93 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wisla Plock
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 1, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 29%, Radomiak Radom 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Wisla Plock) and 64% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 79% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 64% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Wisla Plock 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Wisla Plock 0-1 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.09 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.01 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.70 / defence 1.03 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 36% | Draw 33% | Radomiak Radom 31%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 31%, Radomiak Radom 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.55 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.