Wisla Plock 1-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Plock at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego plays host to Wisla Plock versus Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 12 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wisla Plock have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 0L across 8 games at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.38 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 1W 0D 7L from 8 away games — 0.38 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Wisla Plock's favour (1.60 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Wisla Plock 0W, Legia Warszawa 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Legia Warszawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 67% versus Legia Warszawa 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 67% | Legia Warszawa 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 2.03 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.104 / defence 0.855 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.724 / defence 1.517. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.197. Legia Warszawa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.517 — this is suppressing Wisla Plock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Wisla Plock games / 15 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 67% | Draw 20% | Legia Warszawa 13%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Legia Warszawa 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Plock (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wisla Plock as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 38% | Legia Warszawa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 67% | Draw 20% | Legia Warszawa 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 45% | xG Wisla Plock 2.03 / Legia Warszawa 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.104 / def 0.855 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.724 / def 1.517 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Legia Warszawa xG
45%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa?
Wisla Plock 1 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 67% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Plock 0W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 1.10x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.72x) against Wisla Plock's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 17/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
67%
1.48
20%
5.03
13%
7.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.77
0.74
Legia Warszawa xG
1.48
67%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
7.92
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
13%
7.59
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
2%
60.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.74 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 7W 2D 6L from 15 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 11L across 15 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Plock by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Legia Warszawa heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 6W 2D 0L from 8 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 1W 0D 7L across 8 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.00 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Plock have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 7W 2D 6L in their last 15 games (1.53 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 0D 11L in their last 15 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.50 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Legia Warszawa 2-1 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 38%, Legia Warszawa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Wisla Plock) and 50% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Legia Warszawa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 50% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 50% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wisla Plock edge out Legia Warszawa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Legia Warszawa 1-0 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 2.03 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.74 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.10 / defence 0.85 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.72 / defence 1.52, drawn from 17/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 67% | Draw 20% | Legia Warszawa 13%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 67%, Legia Warszawa 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.