Wisla Plock 3-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Plock host Jagiellonia at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 2W 1D 4L from 7 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.57 goals per game, with 1.43 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Plock have posted 2W 1D 0L at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego — 2.33 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 2W 3D 2L from 7 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.29 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wisla Plock at 1.00 PPG versus Jagiellonia's 1.29. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (7 games): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 43% versus Jagiellonia 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 43% | Jagiellonia 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.60 xG and Jagiellonia 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.135 / defence 0.929 | Jagiellonia attack 0.814 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.138. Jagiellonia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Wisla Plock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Wisla Plock games / 7 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 54% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 19%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Jagiellonia 5.26. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wisla Plock as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 33% | Jagiellonia 71%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 54% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Wisla Plock 1.60 / Jagiellonia 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.135 / def 0.929 | Jagiellonia attack 0.814 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Jagiellonia xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Wisla Plock 3 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia part of?
Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 54% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.43 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.65
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.46
0.86
Jagiellonia xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
4%
26.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.86 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Wisla Plock have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 1D 4L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia's form line: 2W 3D 2L from 7 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.00 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.29 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Wisla Plock won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 43%, Jagiellonia 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Wisla Plock) and 43% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Wisla Plock's games and 71% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 43% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wisla Plock run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Jagiellonia 3-0 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.60 xG and Jagiellonia 0.86 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wisla Plock beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jagiellonia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.14 / defence 0.93 against Jagiellonia attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 54% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 19%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 43%, Jagiellonia 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.00 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.