Wisla Plock 2-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Plock host Cracovia Krakow at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Plock have posted 5W 2D 0L at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego — 2.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.29 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 2W 3D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.12 PPG. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Plock 1.40 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 53% and Cracovia Krakow 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 53% | Cracovia Krakow 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.52 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.074 / defence 0.811 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.826 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.202. Data: 15 Wisla Plock games / 15 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 54% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 20%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Cracovia Krakow 5.00. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 29% | Cracovia Krakow 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 54% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Wisla Plock 1.52 / Cracovia Krakow 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.074 / def 0.811 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.826 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Cracovia Krakow xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Wisla Plock 2 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 54% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.80
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.33
0.81
Cracovia Krakow xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
4%
23.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.81 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Plock come into this having played 15 games, going 6W 2D 7L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.33 PPG from 15 outings (5W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.33 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wisla Plock's home form reads 5W 2D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.40 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 6W 2D 7L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.43 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 29%, Cracovia Krakow 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Wisla Plock) and 43% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 57% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 43% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wisla Plock edge out Cracovia Krakow 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Cracovia Krakow 2-1 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.52 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.81 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.07 / defence 0.81 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.83 / defence 1.15, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 54% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 20%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 53%, Cracovia Krakow 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.33 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.