Wisla Krakow 3-4 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 30 as Wisla Krakow welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Krakow have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Wisla Krakow's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Wisla Plock — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Wisla Plock's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Wisla Krakow's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Wisla Krakow, 1 for Wisla Plock and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Wisla Plock winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Krakow 52% versus Wisla Plock 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 52% | Wisla Plock 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.46 xG and Wisla Plock 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 1.076 / defence 1.105 | Wisla Plock attack 0.844 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.041 / away 1.174. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Wisla Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Wisla Krakow games / 29 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 45% | Draw 26% | Wisla Plock 28%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Wisla Plock 3.57. Wisla Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Wisla Krakow are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wisla Plock (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 30% | Wisla Plock 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights