Wisla Krakow 1-2 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 3 as Wisla Krakow welcome Raków Częstochowa to Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Krakow have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Krakow are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.87 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 1.204 / defence 1.014 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.953 / defence 1.458. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.068. Raków Częstochowa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.458 — this is suppressing Wisla Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Wisla Krakow games / 2 Raków Częstochowa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 56% | Draw 24% | Raków Częstochowa 20%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Raków Częstochowa 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Krakow (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Krakow are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 56% | Draw 24% | Raków Częstochowa 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.87 / Raków Częstochowa 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 1.204 / def 1.014 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.953 / def 1.458 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Raków Częstochowa xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Wisla Krakow 1 - 2 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 56% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wisla Krakow's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Wisla Krakow's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.14
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.90
1.03
Raków Częstochowa xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
3%
32.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.03 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Krakow's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Krakow by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Raków Częstochowa heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Krakow are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
Defensively: Wisla Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Wisla Krakow or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wisla Krakow
0
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Wisla Krakow's recent matches and 50% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Wisla Krakow's matches and 100% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat Wisla Krakow 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Wisla Krakow 1-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 1.87 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.03 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wisla Krakow fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 1.20 / defence 1.01 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.95 / defence 1.46, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 56% | Draw 24% | Raków Częstochowa 20%, with Wisla Krakow to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Raków Częstochowa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 100%, Raków Częstochowa 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Krakow arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Raków Częstochowa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wisla Krakow managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.