Wisla Krakow 2-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Krakow at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 12 as Wisla Krakow welcome Raków Częstochowa to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Krakow have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Krakow have posted 5W 0D 0L at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Wisla Krakow are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wisla Krakow register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Raków Częstochowa in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wisla Krakow, 2 for Raków Częstochowa and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 64% and Raków Częstochowa 91% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wisla Krakow 54% | Raków Częstochowa 91%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.57 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.990 / defence 0.855 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.026 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.301. Data: 11 Wisla Krakow games / 45 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 44% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 24%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Krakow are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 60% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 44% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.57 / Raków Częstochowa 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.990 / def 0.855 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.026 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Raków Częstochowa xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 18:15 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Wisla Krakow 2 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 44% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (2 meetings): Wisla Krakow 0W | Draws 0 | Raków Częstochowa 2W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wisla Krakow's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Wisla Krakow's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
44%
2.27
31%
3.18
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.71
1.14
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
5%
19.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.14 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Krakow's recent record stands at 5W 3D 3L from 11 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 9L across 11 games — 0.55 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Krakow by 1.09 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Raków Częstochowa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wisla Krakow have managed 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Wisla Krakow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 1W 0D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.36 scored and 2.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Raków Częstochowa in 91%.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 0D 9L in their last 11 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 3.00 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wisla Krakow's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Wisla Krakow
0
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
From 3 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 1, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Wisla Krakow 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wisla Krakow at 60%, Raków Częstochowa at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Wisla Krakow and 80% for Raków Częstochowa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Wisla Krakow's games and 80% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Wisla Krakow's matches and 80% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wisla Krakow edge out Raków Częstochowa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Krakow beat Raków Częstochowa 2-1 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 1.57 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.14 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 0.99 / defence 0.85 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.03 / defence 1.02, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 44% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 24%, with Wisla Krakow to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 54%, Raków Częstochowa 91%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 91% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.55. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.