Wisla Krakow 0-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana to face Wisla Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 26 November 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wisla Krakow have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow's home record at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 4D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Radomiak Radom are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Wisla Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Krakow 40% versus Radomiak Radom 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 60% | Radomiak Radom 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 0.86 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.782 / defence 1.264 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.921 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.221. Wisla Krakow's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Wisla Krakow games / 15 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 22% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 50%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Radomiak Radom 2.00. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 29% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 22% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Wisla Krakow 0.86 / Radomiak Radom 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.782 / def 1.264 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.921 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Radomiak Radom xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Wisla Krakow 0 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 22% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wisla Krakow's attack rating (0.78) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.92x) against Wisla Krakow's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
22%
4.48
28%
3.58
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.28
1.42
Radomiak Radom xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
5%
18.59
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.5 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.42 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Wisla Krakow have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 5W 2D 8L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 6W 7D 2L from 15 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Radomiak Radom are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wisla Krakow.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wisla Krakow have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.33 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 2D 8L in their last 15 games (1.13 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 6W 7D 2L in their last 15 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 1.43 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wisla Krakow
0
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2022, when Radomiak Radom 4-2 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 29%, Radomiak Radom 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Wisla Krakow) and 43% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Wisla Krakow have failed to score in 29% of games; Radomiak Radom in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Wisla Krakow's recent matches and 57% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Wisla Krakow's recent games and 43% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Radomiak Radom edge out Wisla Krakow 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Wisla Krakow 0-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 0.86 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.42 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Krakow fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 0.78 / defence 1.26 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 22% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 50%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 60%, Radomiak Radom 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.