Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Krakow vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana plays host to Wisla Krakow versus Motor Lublin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 28 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Wisla Krakow have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Wisla Krakow's home record at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana: 5W 0D 0L from 5 Ekstraklasa appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.

Motor Lublin (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Motor Lublin have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Wisla Krakow against 1.10 for Motor Lublin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Motor Lublin in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading

Wisla Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Motor Lublin half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 64% and Motor Lublin 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 54% | Motor Lublin 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.83 xG and Motor Lublin 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.993 / defence 0.829 | Motor Lublin attack 1.078 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Data: 11 Wisla Krakow games / 45 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 49% | Draw 29% | Motor Lublin 22%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Motor Lublin 4.55. Wisla Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Krakow at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 60% | Motor Lublin 70% BTTS from recent games.

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